((I see one botch on seven dice, including the original 7 on the open d10. So...I'm guessing Cygna just memorized an Apple iOS map? 
))
Ok, I see it now. Chrome was acting up for me, and my hyperlinks weren't showing up as underlines. It was very odd.
So, 1d10.open(10) isn't appropriate to roll for checking botches beyond the first roll. I'm thinking, if my probability is working right that you're reducing your overall chance of botch by doing it this way. I don't feel like doing the work to figure it out, I'm fine with letting it go this time. In the future, just use 1d10 when checking on multiple botch dice.
Still need one more die rolled to check for double botch, which will trigger a Twilight check...
Don't forget to add warping points.
~checks~ That spell uses Base 15....which, yes, gets fixed in the errata back to Base 5, giving you a Circle/Ring version at ReMe 25, which is MUCH easier to do than enchanting the skull, I suppose. Though carving a ring directly ON to the skull might make the ghost slightly more portable....
I like .open(10) primarily because it ensures that I notice when the stress die is a 10, and my understanding of probability theory seems to differ from yours, but it's your game. I'll roll the dice how you want.
My familiar has a Gold Cord of -2 to botch dice. What is this "double botch" that you speak of? Or are you just saying I need to roll one more die?
The additional botchdie is 9, though I think I only needed to roll 6, which I have already. (Still, DAMN, I see why Magi dislike Faerie Auras!)
I'm still willing to fudge dice and eat a Twilight experience to give Cygna a cool Art of Memory side effect.
Twilight Avoidance: Sta 0 + Conc 2 + Vim Form Bonus (2 ?)+ stress die 9 = 11 + Vim Form Bonus
vs (0.4 + 1 warp point = Warp Score 1) + Pts Gained 1 + Enig Wis 0 + Aura 4 + stress die 0 = 6
(What is the Vim Form Bonus? The example doesn't help either.)
Thinking about the probability, doesn't really matter, it's additive, not multiplicitive. The .open(10) is fine for the casting, I like that. Later on, when you roll .open(10) and it goes off five times, and you did 5d10.open(10) you're really going to kick yourself.
I didn't include Theraposa's botch modifier so it's back down to 6, which means Viscaria still botches. The map seems fine. When Fiona and Heims follow it, though, they'll get lost.
I apparently cannot count to 6. She botches, avoids twilight and gains 1 Warping Point, yes? Or is it more because of the Faerie Aura?
1 warping point, so no twilight check necessary. The botch happened because of the Faerie aura, yes. Viscaria doesn't know it, the map seems to make sense to her (she sees what she wants to see) and explains it to Cygna who does understand what she's saying and follows it along, however the directions are all bass ackwards at some key points.
Anything Heims, Cygna and Viscaria want to discuss before they run off, and Viscaria's sodalis from Spider Palace arrives?
Just to see if there are any...tricks, any particularly effective carrots and/or sticks that we can use to try to get Norbart back here.
Aside from a safe place with a great library (or so we'll say), you mean? 
So, Cygna and Hiems head off while Viscaria starts scouring the covenant for Arcane Connections and Symbolic Links, and making a Symbolic Representation?
Is there Silver there for her to work with? If not, she can do it in stone.
No silver, unless she destroys something else and recycles the silver for her use.
Not out of the question in her mind. I am thinking of a lost wax mold of a coin or ring. Would need maybe a few ounces. But she would need to find the equipment and forge, etc. we have already seen some working tools here.
About a week after Heims and Cygna depart Viscaria is notified that she has a visitor at the mirror and is handed the letter. When she arrives at the mirror Virgil is there with a bemused smile on his face. "This place is a mess, Viscaria. What on earth are you doing here? Oh, and Olivia sends her regrets. Florum business and all." The last was said as if that explains everything.
Viscaria beams with unfeigned pleasure at Virgil. "It's sorta like a trap for @ssh#l#$, I guess. Welcome to the once-great covenant of Lapis Crudis. They tried to set up some kind of defensive magic to protect themselves from a wizard war, and got stuck in here when things went haywire. They managed to build this mirror, which acts as a door, but the regio inside requires some sort of societal balance in order to function, I think. So, you can only get in if someone Essentially like you gets out, and you can only get out the same way."
She pauses for a second to let that sink in.
"Now, the magi that were in here when it happened were....rather self-serving, and so they've been stuck for a while. One of them bribed me into trading places with him "temporarily." (We'll see if he's as good as his word.) There's another magi in here whose been stuck here this entire time, and he wants to bribe you into taking places with him. But the way I figure it, if we get enough magi in on this, then its not really all that big a deal. The library is well stocked -- these guys had a LOT of time to write out their lab texts, too, from the look of it."
"Now, I'm assuming Olivia knows where you are. I've already got two other friends from my previous covenant, Phoenix, trying to talk a few more Iberians into the project, and you know how big Mons Electi is. I asked for Olivia, because her house would be more interested in this covenant than you and I would be. But anyway, this guy, Mnemnos, has been here since his apprenticeship, he's the one that wants to talk to you. Are you willing to listen?"
Viscaria had intended to suggest making this a mercantile effort to Olivia -- essentially turning the regio into a resort hotel for Merinita. With Virgil, she's had to change her thinking.
"Sure, I'll listen to him."
((Just so I'm clear on what Viscaria wants to do... Is she trying to convince Virgil to switch places with Mnemnos? I'll just short cut that, and say if she can convince Virgil to switch places with her, the pair can converse as long as necessary, off camera. If Viscaria cares about the deal that is struck between Virgil and Mnemnos, it can be done on camera. Mnemnos has already established that he has a goal, and if Viscaria doesn't realize it, the player should know that his goal is in Constantinople, and if I might say so, totally out of his league. And if Mnenmos gets out, I'm not clear on how it helps Viscaria. Just set up what Viscaria is doing a bit for me...))
((Still waiting to hear about the rest of the Arcane and Symbolic connections she was looking for. Signature? Handwritting? Birth details sufficient to make a horoscope? If she hasn't found these yet, she'll ask Mnemnos before letting him speak to Virgil. As for how this plan helps Viscaria, she was more or less honest in her converstion with Virgil -- once both these magi are out of Lapis Crudis, they can't find sanctuary here unless one of us lets them back in. We could take it as a vassal of Mons Electi, we could do any number of things with it. The difference here is that Vee has friends.))
((You need to be way more specific and descriptive about what you want to gather as an Arcane Connections. What's the item, and what's the connection kind of questions need to be answered. I didn't answer this before, because it was extremely vague. You can't get an AC to the entire covenant, but you could probably collect ACs to various things, people. Sympathetic connections to what, people of the covenant? Some of that information is obvious, and covenfolk would figure not to offer that information easily to magi not of the covenant. Unless Viscaria goes breaking into sancta, she's not going to come across a signature of a magus.
Let me ask, for clarity, you want Virgil to switch places with Mnemnos and not Viscaria?))
My apologies for being unclear. I meant sympathetic and Arcane connections to Somnifer:
- Totally going to break into his sanctum looking for Arcane Connections, if no others are obviously available.
- Signature of target
- Nickname or birthname. Perhaps Mnemnos has a nickname for Somnifer that he's used in his own head for decades? Somnifer might not even know of it.
- nativity horoscope. With a Int 3 + AL (math) 1= 4+die, this might take her several days to work out even after she finds the info.
- Symbolic Representation. Dex -1 + Craft:Stone 3 + dwarf bonus 1 + speciality: fae style 1 = 4....hrm....maybe she WILL steal some silverware for this. Or use some of her own silver jewelry.
Alright, Viscaria attempts to enter Somnifer's sanctum. She gets lucky and isn't spotted. She gets into the outer part of his quarters, which is a parlour, public receiving area. There is a door beyond that that is marked with the sanctum marker. Attempting to open the door she finds she isn't able to turn the handle.
The covenfolk don't know Somnifer's birthname. ((I'm going to rule that a nickname has to be known and accepted by the individual, otherwise you guys could just call Valerian some name and boom, instant Sympathetic connection.)) So, whatever Mnemnos calls him privately is useless, Mnemnos indicates he doesn't know his birthname either, and it isn't mentioned in his "wife's" journal. Tribunal records might have details of Somnifer's past.
((Jumping up to Virgil and Mnemnos...))
Mnemnos details what he must do, that he must acquire the virtue of Eirene Laskarina, and upon hearing this Virgil laughs a hearty laugh. "In that case, Mnemnos, and Viscaria, I will not exchange places with Mnemnos. There are too many risks to his ability to keep his word." He pauses and then smiles, "I don't doubt his fidelity, but the task for him is nigh impossible. To seduce the Roman Empress. This rube? IT would take a hundred years."
Poking this thread. Viscaria is the linchpin. What she decides to do is going to shape what happens for some time.