A 2 is the absolutely worst roll you can make...
So... Tranquillina gets a bye and makes it to the elite 8. The two competitors that Tranquillina could have faced knocked each other out simultaneously.
The bad news?
Round 3 is Maris, and it happens as soon as she finishes her 2nd round match, without a break.
Feel free to chose the Tecnique still. I'll let that roll stand. 
Tranquillina is teh awesome. All the way to the quarterfinals without having to face even 1 year of post-Gauntlet opposition!
At least Maris doesn't get to choose Rego and kill Tranquillina just with the sound of her pronouncing it. "Perdo," Tranquillina announces.
I just realized that in 1227.1, Tranquillina used her Resolute Mind of the Tireless Researcher spell to increase the number of hours she could spend in the lab each day, boosting her Lab Total. I made the required Addled roll (Covenants page 108) and barely failed it, which means that Tranquillina has a Long-Term Fatigue level the entire 1227.2 season.
This definitely impacts Certamen, although I checked the one against Rose - the only rolls that were affected yielded the same result with an extra -2. Of course it hurts her chances going forward ... actually, JL, will she recover all her lost Fatigue from Dazed before the bout with Maris? Maybe since she skipped the second round.... Oh well, let me know, it's not like her chances are good anyway.
On the plus side, her addled and fatigued state goes a long way towards explaining why she botched that roll in Enter the Kangaroo 
Yes, Maris's competitor in the second round required rest, just like Tranquillina did. Tranquillina needs an hour and a half to recover, and she starts at Winded now. Got it.
Maris smiles warmly at Tranquillina, which is completely inconsistent with the behavior she last showed 4 years ago. "Very well, I'll choose Terram."
invisiblecastle.com/roller/view/3806613/
Relevant Stats:
Quik +0, Presence +1, Perception +4, Intelligence +1, Stamina +1
Finesse 4, Penetration 3, Parma Magica 6
Perdo 15, Terram 18
Initiative of 8
(Odd roll above) Maris Attacks with Perdo, Defends with Terram
Attack Total: 1+15+15+5=36
Defense Total: 4+18+9=31
Maris creates a phantasm of a crack in the ground widening into a pit beneath Tranquillina's feet, large enough to swallow her.
((OK, the Form score wasn't as bad as I feared, and at least Tranquillina doesn't have a 0 in Terram ... on the other hand, I didn't dodge much of a bullet with Perdo.... 
))
Tranquillina is rather leery of Maris's amiability, but she is certainly willing to play the friendly competition game, so she smiles back. Her "strategy" is to try to hit Maris fast, put her power on offense, and hope to get a lick in before her inevitable demise. Tranquillina creates a phantasm of the earth under Maris's feet turning into a pit of quicksand, the soil beginning to cover her ankles as it also flows towards Tranquillina to fill in the widening pit there. That's the idea, at least....
Weakening Total modifier: 5.
Resistance Total: 1.
Initiative: Qik -1 + Finesse 2 + stress die 8 = 9.
I am happy to report that Tranquillina won initiative, without even spending Confidence! The rest of the story ... shall we say, not as impressive:
Tranquillina's Pre and Per are both +2, so she can allocate totals of 2 + Pe 14 = 16 and 2 + Te 5 = 7.
Attack, round 1: 16 + stress die 0 (no botch) = 16.
Defense, round 1: 7 + stress die 2 = 9.
AA: 36 Attack -9 Defense=27
Weakening Total: 1+3 +27=30 vs Resistance of 1 for a total of 29; 6 Fatigue levels are lost.
Maris calmly sidesteps the phantasm of quicksand, Tranquillina, though stumbles and falls into the phantasmal pit. The last thing she remembers is the blackness consuming her utterly...
That puts Tranquillina at an effective Unconscious + 2 additional levels. She wakes up 4 hours later in the pavilion dedicated for contestants. When she wakes up, she's still at dazed, and she's missed the balance of the competition. Attendants in the pavilion see to her needs for food and water, but advise her to continue resting. Incidentally, Rose is not present here. Korvin may be...depending...
Up next Korvin.
He's facing Anemone Flambonis from the Theban Tribunal.
Go ahead and do the rolls/totals/calculations for the attack.
An OoH Lore check of 12 will reveal something about her favored Arts...
Korvin is back to his old ways and is utterly oblivious to who this Anemone is or even what house he is in. Korvin will not be in this for long.
1d10=2 ((This is Korvin's standard roll for anything that might be awareness))
Art roll 1d10=5 Creo
Init Quk 0 + Finesse 2 + 1d10=6 = 8
Quik +0 Presence +0, Perception +0, Intelligence +3, Stamina +1
Finesse 2, Penetration 2 (Creo), Parma Magica 4 (Corpus)
Creo 27, Corpus 19
Attack Creo 27 + 1d10=4 = 31
Defense Corpus: 19 + 1d10=7 = 26
Tranquillina really doesn't have much choice but to continue resting for a while longer. She could spont Endurance of the Berserkers on herself, but the mere act of casting the spell would render her unconscious again.
She smiles faintly as she looks around at the several Mons Electi covenfolk who are helping to staff the contestants' pavilion. Moving extremely slowly with long pauses, she goes to them one by one over the next hour, giving them words of praise and encouragement for the job they're doing (a job she experienced firsthand).
oh, poor Korvin! Where is his lucky crap-roll-lightning-rod Tranquillina when he needs her?
Anemone isn't quite sure about Korvin and picks her favored Art of Corpus, an unwise move on her part. She needed a 9 to pick something other than Corpus.
Go ahead and block them out like Marko did...like so:
Quik +3 (+3 Fast Caster), Presence +2, Perception +1, Intelligence +1, Stamina +2
Finesse 6+2, Penetration 0 (Creo), Parma Magica 3 (Ignem)
Creo 11, Corpus 12
Resistance: 5
Die rolls of 9, 2, 4, 4 for Intiative, Art for Attack, Attack and Defense
Anemone is uncommonly fast, but ultimately not very effective.
Initiative is: 3+3+8+9=23
Art for Attack is even so form: Corpus
Attack total is: 2+12+4=18 vs 26, no effect
Defense Total is 1+11+4=16 vs 31=15 AA
Korvin's phantasm sideswiped Anemone's pixie darting too and fro.
Korvin's Weakining: is 15+3+3=21 vs 5 Resistance is 16, she's down 4 fatigue levels. She concedes the contest. Korvin moves to the second round.
Go ahead and start the next round of competition:
Roll for a competitor
Roll for whether you pick Form or Technique.
Fiona (who had been watching the tournament from the sideline, as she's trying to be in all places at all times, more or less), sits next to Tranquillina.
[color=blue]"You did well out there," she says in Gaelic. [color=blue]"Maris may be one of the best at Certamen in the Order...I've seen her defeat the former Exarch at it. Losing to her is nothing to be ashamed of, especially since you lasted almost as long as he did." ((I don't remember if that's technically true, but it doesn't matter ))
She then pulls out her flask and hands it to Tranquillina. [color=blue]"Here...if this doesn't perk you up, it's time to call a priest," she says with a laugh. ((The flask contains Fiona's home-brewed whiskey.))
Korvin's competitor is Artorius of Bonisagus, from Cunfin. He squeaked by in the last round when he probably ought not to have been able. Maybe his last competitor botched. He is well aware of Korvin's preferred Form and picks his own preferred Form of Mentem.
At hearing this choice, coupled with the Korvin's choice of Creo, the crowd boos a bit at the boring phantasms that they might expect to see. Concentration rolls may be necessary if this drags on, due to the rowdiness of the crowd.
Go ahead and do your totals and attack/defense rolls
Tranquillina smiles reflexively at hearing Gaelic, and motions wearily for Fiona to make herself comfortable. "My two rounds were a study in contrasts," she says, breathing heavily. She's not trying to hide her feelings, but given her fatigue she's not putting any energy into displaying them either. ((Folk Ken roll to determine how she feels about her performance in the Tournament.))
Her eyes appraising one of the covenfolk tending to a fellow Bonisagus, Tranquillina takes a sip without even looking at the flask. One near spit-take later - "'S ann trusdar is Tremere!" she exclaims, wiping her mouth with the back of her hand. "I'd rather Certamen with Maris again than have to endure this contest!" Eyes twinkling, she steels herself and takes a more successful draught.
Korvin could get hammered in this one.
Quik +0 Presence +0, Perception +0, Intelligence +3, Stamina +1
Finesse 2, Penetration 2 (Creo), Parma Magica 4 (Corpus)
Creo 27, mentem 5
Init: 1d10=4 + 2 = 6
Attack: Creo 27 + 1d10=8 35
Defense mentem 5+ 1d10=7 = 12
Korvin will try to give the crowds something. He will set a phantasm chess set but with the white pieces will be quite erotic poses of men and women. The queen will look vaguely like Fiona. He will try to overwelm Artorius with bold moved that may sacrifice many pieces.
Artorius is pretty young, so don't worry, too much.
Quik +0 Presence +0, Perception +2, Intelligence +5, Stamina +1
Finesse 3, Penetration 3 (Mentem), Parma Magica 3 (Mentem)
Creo 8, Mentem 14
Rolls of 2, 1, 4, 7, Attacking with Technique.
Artorius responds with more traditional chess pieces.
He attacks with Creo: 8 + 4=12 vs a 12 defense, no effect.
He defends with Mentem: 14 +2 +7=23 vs 35 Attack
Korvin's weaking is 12+3+2+1=19 vs Artorius's resistance of 1+3+1=5; 14, Artorius looses three fatigue levels.
The pair seem to exchange moves on the chess board left and right, whatever move Artorius makes, Korvin counters and takes a piece, before long half of the black pieces, belonging to Artorius, are culled from the board.
Next round rolls and totals.
Same attack and defense arts
Attack Creo 27 + 1d10=1 assuming exploding 1d10=10 21 = 48
Defense mentem 5 + 1d10=7 = 12
Die rolls of 3, so Attack with Technique, 6 and 5
We'll do the defense first, which is:
Defense: 14+5+2=21 vs 48=27 AA
Weakening: 27 AA +3 +2 +1=33 vs Resistance of 5=28, he loses 6 fatigue levels, leaving him at Unconscious +3
His Attack totaled a 8+6=14 against Korvin's Defense of 12, for 2 AA
A Weakening Total of 2+5+3+1=11 vs Resistance of 5=6. Korvin loses two fatigue levels.
The Fiona piece crosses the entire board and begins humping Artorius's king piece to death. The crowd goes wild, and Artorius faints from the shock, and the scandal. Just as he faints, he sees all the pieces engage in a lewd display, as armor and clothes go flying...
Korvin is in the elite eight of the certamen contest...
Roll for competitor and Art selection.
((Is there enough time to recover Fatigue?))
Korvin blows a kiss to Fiona in the crowd after the win.
Competitor 1d10=10 it is either really good or really bad
Art : 1d10=6 it is bad Corpus
Check for a botch on the competitor roll. Probably means a Tremere or Rotgiers if you do botch.