Tranquillina cannot detect Loys. She feels that the penetration should be more than sufficient, but even then, it's apparently not enough.
I have let a lot of things slide in this story thread too, and I apologize.
Roberto lets Alexi chase after CrubleHatch while he focuses on helping Junior and Brionne (Junior first)
1d10=8, plus 11 (Sta +1, Pe5, Vi3, Mastery 2), and aura 5, =24
Then the follow up (against level unknown, but I am guessing 20ish)
1d10=9, +25 = 34, plus two confidence points equals 40.
did that work?
((No it's not enough, no confidence spent.))
I subtly indicated the level above when I said Brionne received a warping point, but Junior did not. They are 30th and 25th level respectively. It's not too long until sunset before the spell wears off, no more than an hour or two before the magi arrive on the scene.
She frowns after an hour of fruitless searching on the map. The power behind her Search should have been enough to overcome any Aegis - certainly their own, for example. And it's unlikely that Cumhachd's Parma Magica was developed to the point where it could have rebuffed the spell, even if Tranquillina had cast it on her ... so, enough to be shared with Loys? It seemed unlikely.
After a couple of minutes, an idea occurs to Tranquillina that brings along with it a sinking feeling. ((Since her player read this discussion, I want to make a roll to see if she gets this idea. Of course it's a roll she's really good at.... Int 3 + Magic Theory 9 + stress die 6 = 18 should do it.)) She spontanously casts The Whole from the Part on the lock of hair to see whether it is still serving as an Arcane Connection to Loys. ((In this aura, she can spont the level 20 InCo spell as long as I check that she doesn't botch.))
She sees the image of Loy's, so can presume it is an active AC.
The MT roll, as concerning Loy's though suggests that Cumhachd needs a lab to effectively open Loy's Arts, in order to retain his Gentle Gift. So being under the protection of an Aegis isn't unreasonable...
Stultus is not in the best of moods, so he almost wanders past the lily. Almost. His ineffable curiosity does get the better of him, though. He quirks his head to one side as he peers at the flower. "You," he says, "are not where you're supposed to be." Yet another Weird Thing to add to the cascade of weirdness that this day has brought.
(( Per 1 + Awareness 3 + roll of 1 then 9 = 22. 23 if it involves Alertness. 
))
(( Also, my apologies for the absence. Work has been hell. Last weekend, as an example, involved an 8-hour drive, 11 hours on-site and then another 8-hour drive. Plus, the work site was in Oklahoma City. I had to stop about an hour out so as not to drive into the tornado's aftermath.))
((My apologies for being MIA as well. I've been going through a really challenging time in my personal life the past couple of weeks. Not all bad by any stretch, but enough to make it hard for me to concentrate. Beating my head against these forums wasn't something I had the patience for....))
The flower itself certainly doesn't offer any more insight: it simply shouldn't be there, and Stultus suspects magic was involved. He knows well, though, that when there's one weird thing there are usually others, and looks around carefully. Almost right next to the flower, an ample vertical crack (about as wide as a normal person) intrudes several feet into the cliff face. Two more lilies are "growing" therein, faintly visible near the back of the crevice. Although the slightly overhanging rock face makes it extremely difficult to see within, Stultus's careful examination allows him to make out a thin ring on the ground within the crevice, as if drawn on a wax tablet with a stylus.
At this point his senses are all highly engaged, and so he notices immediately when a long shadow blinks into existence on the path he was until recently walking upon. Out of the corner of his eye, he sees that the feet of the shadow are not attached to any visible person. "It would seem quite unremarkable, to any observer from down below," murmurs Tranquillina's voice, "for you to indulge some curiosity and explore the crack for a short time."
Stultus stands there, facing the crack, his head quirked to one side, looking at the opening with an expression of intense curiosity on his phyz. He doesn't speak. The poppet in his arms, however, does: quietly, in Gaelic, and also without moving.
"Tranquillina, darling. I know very well what 'The Earth Split Asunder' and similar spells do, and I know equally well that Parma will not protect me if that crack should suddenly happen to close. Been there, done that, still have the scars. I also see the ring inscribed within, which suggests another spell. When one combines those two facts with your recent display of temper in the Council Chamber, one is left with but a single question.
Just what kind of idiot do you think I am?"
"The kind that simply must know what's going on," Tranquillina replies matter-of-factly. The feet of the shadow approach the crevice and disappear into the dimness, the sound of the footsteps suggesting that Tranquillina walked all the way into the circle.
Stultus can't quite restrain a smirk. Whatever else you might say about Tranquillina, on this particular topic she's certainly got his number. He steps forward, almost to the edge of the crack -- estimates his chances of an InVi spell telling him anything useful -- discards that idea and steps all the way within the crevasse.
((Just to clarify: it's a vertical crack - like a very thin cave - rather than a horizontal ditch-like crack.))
When Stultus reaches the interior of the etched circle, he feels (with a bit of a start) a hand press on his shoulder - just enough to indicate where Tranquillina is. "Stay still," she murmurs. Then her voice begins to travel around the circle, speaking the words of a Perdo Imaginem spell. ((Let's call it a Per + Magic Theory roll against EF 15 to tell that it's Ambush on the Deserted Road.)) Nothing apparent to Stultus happens when the spell is complete; however, she then begins another spell around the ring, this one a spontaneous Perdo Imaginem spell. A few seconds after that one is complete, Tranquillina becomes visible again without warning. She looks like her normal fifteen-year-old self, and her wolfskin cloak is also undisguised by magic.
"Nobody who passes by, or spies on us from afar, will be able to see or hear anything now," Tranquillina declares in a strong but low-pitched voice. "We can talk openly here."
((2nd PeIm spell is like Ambush, but for sound rather than sight, and doesn't require the ability to move the direction of the effect - hence Base 3, +1 Touch, +2 Ring for level 10. Sta -3 + Pe 14 + Im 10 + aura 5 + Talisman attunement (peace) 4 - quiet words 5 + stress die 3 = 28, halved is 14.))
((Per + Finesse rolls vs. EF of 9 to be convincing, if anyone happens by: 2+2+stress die 4=8 for both rolls. Oh come on. I'll spend a Confidence point on each roll to make them successful 11s.))
Stultus nods slowly. "Well. This promises to be fascinating." He clasps his hands behind him, looking up at Tranquillina. "Pray continue."
((Folk Ken roll for Tranquillina to read Stultus's mood: Per 2 + Folk Ken (their opinions of her) 4 + stress die 4 = 10.))
Tranquillina isn't deliberately towering over Stultus, but the ring in which they stand is just small enough that she can't avoid intruding into his personal space. "Where to begin, sodalis, where to begin," she temporizes, her body doing its best to pace within the circle's very limited confines. "I ... have a friend, who was known by those around her to be under stress. This friend elected to attend a meeting, which she knew about in advance, yet if anything she displayed an overabundance of agitation. She arrived in a physical state that can be described as provocative and overtly distracting. She insistently brought the conversation back around to a particular topic of her choosing." Tranquillina's eyes do not bear any trace of madness or fury; instead, she seems to be in somewhat of a good mood, almost ... teasing?
"What might one conclude about this friend of mine? - no. That is the wrong question." She looks down towards the magus. "What would you, conclude about this woman?"
(( Com 2 + Guile 3 + roll of 1 then 5 = 15. Sorry, Tranquillina, not today. 
))
"Well." Stultus smiles a bit. "I did witness the meeting in question, and your friend as well. Her behavior, while perfectly consistent with her earlier patterns, represented a marked escalation. So my conclusion was that this ... friend of yours ... had proceeded to willfully ignore everything the rest of us have been telling her, and had -- in layman's terms -- finally reached the end of her rope."
"You begin to make my point for me," Tranquillina continues with raised eyebrows. "I know well what you think about me, about what you witnessed. But phrasing it as a description of some person unknown to you, I had hoped, would engage your rational faculties a bit more powerfully." She pokes idly at one of the out-of-place lilies with her foot. "A person who, aware of her earlier patterns, decided to escalate them, to the point of appearing unhinged - but oh so justifiably. And sure enough, all present came to the obvious conclusion that this person had indeed lost her grip somewhat. Quite tidy, nobody asking any more questions." She looks again at Stultus. "Anything strike you, magus of Tytalus, about this scenario as described?"
Stultus hmmms, looking up at Tranquillina with a slight smile. His voice is mild, polite, and thoughtful. "Before I answer that question, maga of Bonisagus, I require some additional information." He strokes his chin for a moment. "To the best of your knowledge, are you -- at the present moment -- under the influence of a Mentem spell, effect, or other contrivance? Specifically one designed to keep your emotions in check?"
This question seems a pretty fair play for the riddle game that Tranquillina has started. "No, I am not. In fact, to the best of my knowledge I am under the influence of no magic whatsoever, save my Parma and my Longevity Ritual. And, I suppose, the aura and our Aegis."
Stultus nods thoughtfully. "And what would your reaction be if I told you that Cumhachd of Tytalus taught you very well indeed?"
The Old Tranquillina's reaction to such a question would be to explode, and he knows that. (In point of fact, considering the very close quarters, the Old Tranquillina's reaction may very well necessitate the first application of the Chunky Salsa rule to Ars Magica.) How this New-ish Tranquillina might react to it is still an open question, but it's one Stultus wants answered.
Tranquillina's eyes close for a long moment; in the deep shadow, it's hard to tell whether they're squeezed shut or just resting. "Let us hope that she has the same belief," she murmurs finally. "She and I are scheming. Scheming, in point of fact, towards hastening the end of the Guernicus Prima's life."
"Ohh-ho-ho-ho!" murmurs the dwarf. "The plot thickens."
He stands there for a moment, considering the implications. "Before we discuss this further, I'd like to make sure that it is Tranquillina I am speaking to. So... can you remind me what it was you said to Gerulf and myself right after Fiona kissed you?"