Given the timing of the blockage, the most obvious conclusion is that the attackers blocked the aqueduct. Their likely motivation would be depriving the covenant's magi of a little bit of aura. The effect would have been marginal, but then, blocking the aqueduct didn't take much effort. The loss of water might also have affected any magus who relied on Aquam for combat magic, but you don't know that there was any such magus at the covenant (of course, you don't know that there wasn't, either).
Why do the fountains have such an impact on the aura? Well, the answer to that question is obvious once you understand the nature of the aura.
Oh, there is one aspect I neglected to mention: the running water qualifes as one of the covenant's two Healthy Features, especially as the plumbing system includes sanitation.
Great. I've been assuming the Hypocaust is the other Healthy Feature - if only it was in the lab of someone who wasn't a Weak Enchanter and therefore had a magic item investigation total above about 10.
Good assumption, considering that I only figured that out today (though actually, I may have decided that some time ago, and forgotten about it in the meantime). But yes, somebody is going to have to figure out how to use it.
Do the Magi know for certain that the Hypocaust is fully mundane?
I ask as if it is fully mundane and in disrepair it could be fixed. Then perhaps the goal is to "automate" the amount of effort required to keep it running. I've read that hypercausts took a huge amount of effort to keep going, and magic can help with that.
That might be better thematically for the covenant that what I was thinking about for heat and light devices.
I'm pretty sure the Hypocaust is a magic item (I think Tasia detected it as such) - the problem is none of the Magi know the trigger to turn it on, and nobody's spent the necessary season of investigation to work it out.