The horseman can't give a completely certain answer, since that depends on the number of villages nearby and the relationships among them, but something in the range of 150-200 men from 8-10 villages would be typical.
Finally, Fray reports spotting a village where something seems amiss: there seem to be a number of people camped out within the settlement's perimeter.
Scott
Gregorius is surprised, and not a little worried by this, and questions Fray (@ironboundtome) for more detail.
"Did it look like the people camped out could be Amazons, or could they be villagers preparing to defend against them? Or refugees who have been displaced from another village?"
"What sort of numbers are we talking about?"
@MTKnife - Fray would initially stay a long way away, close to the extreme of his sight. Then land and observe. Did the camps have any similarities to the prior Amazon camp that Fray saw when he rescued Tasia?
Or contain armed people, and/or horses?
And was the settlement itself showing signs of damage, or a lack of habitation?
And in what numbers?
Once he's sure that he has a little better look (to get a description to share with the others), Fray would be thinking about next steps of investigating further or returning to his comrades.
The camp doesn't look anything like the Amazon camp the group saw before--and the people camping appear to include men, women, and children of various ages. The village doesn't display any signs of damage or abandonment.
Scott
Fray replies to Gregorius, "They are families, perhaps a handful - it wasn't easy to say. At a guess they could be displaced by something, as it is unusual to see that many outside of the village, as the village wasn't damaged. Suggest a subtle investigation, as they may well be reacting to our foes. I will take a closer look".
OOC: What numbers were there?
Fray will give his allies the heading and whatever approx information he can, then return to observe.
Gregorius looks relieved. "Ah good - I was concerned we were going to need to fight in a village, but if they're refugees that sounds less likely. I agree that it's likely that they're fleeing the Amazons."
Whilst Fray is scouting, Gregorius will keep his band moving in the direction of the village, but not to the point of actually reaching it.
About a dozen makeshift tents--enough to house maybe half the population of the smallish villages typical of these parts, which are inhabited by no more than 150 people.
Scott
Once Fray reports back, Gregorius will comment:
"So, refugees, then. Probably ones who have been directly affected by the Amazons - did any of them appear wounded?"
"It feels like it would be useful to talk to them, to get an idea of the forces facing us. Their ideas of numbers may not be particularly reliably, especially if they were attacked by surprise, but if there were unconventional attacks such as magic used, that would be very much worth knowing in advance - and probably harder to pick up via conventional scouting than numbers."
Speaking still shaped as a raven, "I hadn't considered they might be refugees, good point. If we could speak with them then we could learn their where their homes were, and the path the amazons are raiding." The feathered bird head and beak reflects the burns on Fray's human face.
"I'd not wish to disturb the folk while we investigate, but would like to keep our people safe just in case."
"On that basis, I think we do go through the village rather than round it. Please could you do a scout round the area right before we enter, though, and then stay within range in case something goes wrong."
Gregorius will brief people about the presence of the additional people, noting that they're probably refugees, but to still remain cautious. He'll ask the local's main spokesman to see what information he can get from the villagers about any attack by the Amazons - especially useful tactical information.
As they approach the village he will also be paying close attention to his Premonitions.
Fray will circle the village a few times, staying within eye sight of the village but looking further out too. He's expecting trouble.
Fray sees nothing suspicious, other than the presence of the putative refugees.
Scott
Into the village we go, then. Carefully.
Of course, villagers are always a little wary at the sight of any strangers, and that's even more the case when one of the strangers possesses the Gift. Even so, the magi aren't prepared for the suspicion bordering on outright hostility that they encounter upon approaching the village. They even eye a few scythes being carried, despite its being nowhere near harvest-time.
Scott
As instructed, our spokesman will make an attempt to get information out of the locals. Gregorius will keep a wary eye out whilst he waits, but otherwise not attempt anything - he has considered casting Thoughts Within Babble, but unless and until things calm down he doesn't want to spare the concentration he would have to spend to keep it up.
The villagers are cagy to say the least, but the situation is pretty obvious, and your grog gets enough details to confirm your suspicions: the refugees are indeed refugees from what appears to have been an Amazon attack. It's notable, though, that none of these villagers mentions magic, just extremely scary women sweeping in on horseback.
Scott
Do the grogs get any information on where the refugees are from (in particular how far away), and when the attack took place?
The lack of obvious magic users does have Gregorius briefly considering his legal status (Int 1 + OoH Lore 1, + 1 mundane relations), although his initial instinct is to argue for "self-preservation" and "the enemies of the Order are my enemies" above "shall not interfere with the mundanes".
[Did Timaios end up accompanying us? Not that Gregorius is sure he wants to run it past him, given the extent to which his previous comments have tended towards what Gregorius views as reckless pacifism.]
After checking there is nothing out to the horizon, Fray will look for the path or signs of a large group travelling outside the village to get an idea of the direction they came. Failing that, he will land close to Gregorius when the grogs return to give an update.
The village in question is about 20 miles from here, and roughly to the southeast. It was about two days' walk for the refugees.
After thinking about the legal situation, Gregorius concludes that messing with the villagers in an obvious way would likely be a Bad Idea: even if one were to follow his reasoning about enemies of the Order, it's not clear that other magi in the Tribunal would agree...and Tremere frown upon making legal waves for little potential gain.
I don't think Timaios would be along for this one, for exactly the reason you mention. However, you could likely ask his opinion by sending a message to Viola.
As for Fray's scouting, it turns up nothing of interest...yet.
Scott
Gregorius is thinking less about messing with the refugees, and more about "messing" with the raiders if they actually are purely mundane and it's not clear that they're looking to attack the covenant.
In any case, those are still big "if"s, and we still need to find the raiders. Let's therefore head towards the destroyed village, scouting carefully as we do so.