The corebook says that "a character's Confidence score can only be increased by long-term story events which greatly increase the character's self-confidence and self-reliance". One canonical example are the fifteen grueling years of a Tytalus' apprenticeship. What would qualify in your sagas (both for magi and companions)? These are all events that warrant a Confidence score increase in my sagas:
Be a primary actor of the growth of one's Covenant from Spring into Summer.
Become an Archmage.
Become the Primus of the House (with some exceptions, e.g. the Criamon).
Reach a higher Social Class through hard work (e.g. City and Guild - only one such gain per character).
Fulfill a Vow, or a Drive (as per the Flaws) over the course of at least one decade.
Achieve a Major or Hermetic Breakthrough.
Permanently defeat an Enemy (as per the Flaw) over the course of at least one decade.
Purge oneself of infernal influence through some great sacrifice (e.g. by accepting to lose a Tainted Gift).
Achieve a desired, hard to win Reputation at level 4; OR remove an undesirable reputation starting at level 4 or higher (only one such gain per character).
Scenario 1: Saga starts with Apprentice Pokey ex Flambeau. Decades of game play and years of real time later, Pokey the Mighty succesfully becomes an Archmagus. Increase Confidence score? Hell yes.
Scenario 2: Saga starts with Old Maga Poki ex Flambeau, and the first play session is the scene where she successfully becomes an Archmaga. Increase Confidence score? No way, that's cheap.
These are extreme situations, of course, but they illustrate my belief that increasing one's Confidence Score is more of an OOC decision than a direct consequence of IC actions. Self-Confident is a Minor Virtue, after all, which is why I wouldn't bestow it in Scenario 2 above. Similarly, I'd be loath to bestow it for defeating an Enemy, since the character is already getting rid of a (possibly Major) Flaw.
Still, there's no reason for Virtues and Flaws to remain balanced once character creation is over, so YMMV.
Self-Confident is a Minor Virtue, I don't think it should be that hard if you strive for it. It took 15 years while learning how to be a magus, it should be faster if you only do that. How long should it take to build a Reputation to 3, same as Hermetic Prestige? How long before you are initiated to some Mysteries?
Bonisagus House Acclaim can go to 4 in 10 seasons of hard work, should reaching such a level be worthy of extra Confidence?
We hage an insane Criamon (aint they all) that has been doing everything wrong. From burning the Covenant harbor (if we burn it then they won't) to spurning his beloved (I read some Harlequin, let's play it out), he did it all to our great enjoyment. He certainly is half-way into that Virtue by his behavior. You earn it by roleplaying it, no matter how.
I'm not sure I'm following you here. You need 50 Acclaim points to reach Acclaim 4, and "typically it takes a year per gained acclaim point for the reputation to spread". I agree that you could do it with 10 seasons of hard work, but it would take you 50 years to reap the fruits of that hard work.
It's no cheaper than starting the Saga with Old Maga Poki, and allowing her to initiate a Major Hermetic Virtue in the first season... I mean, with older characters Virtues and Flaws need not be balanced, as long as it is the result of the character spending time/effort in the "pre-game". In the case at hand, Old Maga Poki could become and Archmage only if the player had made sure some that her previous seasons had been spent satisfying the Archmage requirements. In fact, if Poki had become an Archmage entirely in the pre-game, I would have no trouble allowing her a "free" raise in the Confidence Score.
I would say that all of those MAY merit an increase. And that even things less "big" may also, but its a matter of how much the event really affects the character. Example: An arrogant character who is an avid politician becoming primus, it might mean very little for the characters selfconfidence. It would simply be what could almost be expected from them.
At the other side of that coin: Someone failing to become primus but having had much support despite having everything against them, that could easily merit an increase in selfconfidence.
Ie. it has to be a "big thing" for the character, but it doesnt have to mean that the "big thing" was successful(even though it helps).
To me, such an increase in Confidence is something a player earns only through gameplay, and quite a bit of it. And even then, no matter what they accomplish some characters will never gain confidence, because it's not in their ... well, character. If the payers have completed a series of quests, or something, and you wish to reward them with more than just a bit of xp they could have gotten from study anyway, then you could ask them what they want... and the ones who answer 'more confidence' would get it, while the one who want to join a mystery cult (for the special virtues, presumably) or receive a useful clue for their Major Breakthrough get that instead.
So instead of linking the confidence gain to what is already a reward (becoming Archmage, or achieving a Breakthrough) I would award it after gameplay, even if all the character has managed to do is survive what you threw at him...
I see it as being tied to surmonting hardships, which proves you that "you can do it", which bolster your confidence.
So the question is not "what did you achieve", but "how was that difficult to achieve"?
So, a veteran companion boosted by magic items and relics, alongside his cadre of grogs and aided by his friends from the OoH will probably not gain one for saving a noble princess from the hands of the cruel wizard of evilbadia. A young squire surely will.
Likewise, your socialite jerbiton with maxed-out communication and social skills won't get one for getting an easy proposition everyone agrees upon through a tribunal. But if your magus had to cue favors, help others, give services and had numerous stories dedicated to winning enough support to pass a difficult ruling, he may gain one.