Agreed, which is why things like, "Someone is going to attack your reputation at the next Tribunal," are prohibitively difficult. I don't see a relatively reliable, "You're about to receive a blow to the head from your left," to be any more game-breaking than the benefits of, say, Second Sight or Enchanting Music. That's keeping in mind that my preference is to give the opportunity to react in time, rather than bonuses to die rolls.
On this we agree entirely.
Not if it is reliable in otherwise seemingly safe situations.
If you get that kind of reliability every round in combat, it is either
- game-breaking (e.g. a bonus which outshines puissant weapon)
- wasting time on mechanics with only minor mechanical impact
I totally agree that this kind of reliability in the event of surprise attacks is functionally just what premonitions should give.
Except that I do not think premonitions give you information as such. It is more like, «you happen to turn to your left, and then you see a blow directed at your head. What do you do?» But that is a narrative and not a mechanical difference.
[quote="loke, post:23, topic:169826, full:true"]
Not if it is reliable in otherwise seemingly safe situations.
If you get that kind of reliability every round in combat, it is either
- game-breaking (e.g. a bonus which outshines puissant weapon)
- wasting time on mechanics with only minor mechanical impact[/quote]
Agreed in full. There's a lot of troupe/storyguide adjudication that needs to occur, and I personally would only have the Virtue come up for story-driving reasons* or events that are going to really impact the character. And, outside of ambushes--whether physical or social--the difficulties of such things get prohibitively high rather quickly. Also, I would never give a character a Premonitions roll every round of combat, just as I wouldn't call for an Awareness roll that often. It just gums things up and, as you noted, makes a minor Virtue far better than it ought to be.
Except that I do not think premonitions give you information as such. It is more like, «you happen to turn to your left, and then you see a blow directed at your head. What do you do?» But that is a narrative and not a mechanical difference.
I don't read the Ability that way. "You intuitively sense something is wrong...," doesn't sound to me like your example, and the description goes on to say that you do get information that you couldn't get without this supernatural Virtue. That said, you're right that the difference is purely narrative, at least for immediate events that a character might reasonably be lucky enough to notice.
*I tend to see Premonitions almost as a story Flaw that's too beneficial to be listed as such.
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There is a cinematic version of precognition where you dodge someone's blow because you know where they are going to move before they start to do so. First of all that is a very high powered version of precognition, and secondly it is, as I said, precognition, not premonitions.
No objection, but it does not sound like yours either 
My point is that you do not know that a blow is heading to your head from the left. You intuitively sense that something is wrong to your left. You only know what when you turn.
The narration I propose is contracting two events, sensing and turning, for the sake of flow and for speed. One could give the player the choice to ignore his senses, but it does not serve the story.
Okay, but how, then, do you account for the extra information that the character receives for beating the Ease Factor by one or more multiples of three?
I think the most decisive difference would be when the danger is sensed. Great success could give a detailed nightmare the night before. Narrow success could give a last minute inkling.
In the case at hand, I cannot see how it makes a difference.
I would not necessarily assume that grand success is in any way better, most of the time.
[quote="loke, post:28, topic:169826, full:true"]
I think the most decisive difference would be when the danger is sensed. Great success could give a detailed nightmare the night before.[/quote]
I like this.
In the case at hand, I cannot see how it makes a difference.
Here's a scenario that I can easily see happening.
Edward stood up shakily, looking at the quarrel embedded in of the wall.
Alysdair: "How ever did you manage to dodge that? I don't think I've ever seen you move so fast."
Edward "I... I just knew it was coming."
Alysdair: "I'll round up the grogs and see if we can't catch the culprit."
Edward: "I think it was David."
Alysdair: "David?! I doubt that. What makes you think so?"
Edward: "I don't know. It's just a gut feeling, I guess."
Alysdair: "Well, that's not going to convince a Quaesitor."
That seems in line with the Ability, and it's really not that far off from the nightmare example.
Good dialogue. I disagree that that is premonitions though.
Premonitions is a sense of upcoming danger. Tracing the culprit is an entirely different kind of situation.
But of course, you could always tell that story and blame it a little bit on folk ken, a little bit on premonitions, and a little bit on whatever else you can think of.
I don't have a problem with an SG stretching the concept of premonitions when it makes a good story.
I have a problem with players expecting that kind of information ...
[quote="loke, post:30, topic:169826"]
Premonitions is a sense of upcoming danger. Tracing the culprit is an entirely different kind of situation.[/quote]
I guess this is the primary point on which we differ, then. I could see a good enough roll (18 or 21+) giving the character the sense that "David is about to shoot you with a crossbow". That said, I can see an argument for putting a cap on how much information one can get from the Ability. That's why I mentioned troupe/storyguide adjudication above. Otherwise, we seem to be on the same page.
I would say that at best a premonitions role would give you a defensive roll against what would otherwise have been a surprise attack. Premonitions is a long way from ESP or precognition.
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And the definition of music in Merrian-Webster is "the science or art of ordering tones or sounds in succession, in combination, and in temporal relationships to produce a composition having unity and continuity". Good luck to any listener if you were to make music based just on the definition of what it is!
I'd agree with the sentiment if the Ability's description didn't include verbiage like, "Mortal peril a week in the future would have an Ease Factor of 9," and, "If you beat the Ease Factor by 3 or more, you also get some sense of the nature of the danger, with more detail if you roll more highly."
Since I appear to be in a hair-splitting mood (please forgive me), I'll be pedantic and note that even a twinge of "something bad will happen tomorrow" fits the definition of precognition. And, being able to sense oncoming danger in a supernatural manner definitely fits the definition of extra-sensory perception, a.k.a. ESP.
That said, I agree entirely that the Virtue isn't intended to provide combat bonuses, clairvoyance, or anything approaching clear visions of the future. I also think that the primary effect that it should provide is, indeed, a chance to defend oneself from surprise attacks. However, I see nothing in the description that precludes also giving a character some information about the danger to come if the roll is high enough and/or the storyguide wants to drop a breadcrumb to drive a story along. If the intention was otherwise, why have high rolls give extra detail?
When you are in combat you are already expecting imminent danger. I donât see how premonitions helps in this situation outside of turning to find a new opponent is targeting you just before they would have surprised you.
Extra details, to me, seems vaguer than you seem to think them. Itâs never going to be âthere will be twelve bandits on the road before Carcasonne.â In combat, it might be âDUCK!â And if you drop your previous action to dodge this round you actually have a chance against that arrow flying at you but only because you switched your action from whatever it was. But generally when in combat the narrative requires that all the actions in the battle be described in initiative order and therefore people get their chance to respond so it seems of minor utility because, generally, in RPG combat the GM does not go âand youâve taken an arrow to the back from an opponent you didnât see.â I don't see premonitions helping in one-on-one combat where two people are facing off. This may be a limitation of many combat systems of many games but thatâs generally how it works, surprise is the first round (or rounds) and then itâs normal combat.
@dc444
In combats I run, I try to make the NPCs active and intelligent. If one of them isn't engaged with an opponent, they move about and seek advantage. And I do ask players to make Awareness rolls to keep track of those NPCs when their character is harried or otherwise distracted. Surprise, therefore, does happen after the first round in my games, for both NPCs and PCs. I realize that I'm in the minority.
All that said, as I posted earlier, pretty much the only thing I would let Premonitions do in combat is substitute for an Awareness roll to avoid being surprised. That would be useful because Premonitions will generally have a lower Ease Factor than an Awareness roll.
As for extra details, I wouldn't get as specific as the twelve bandits you mentioned. If I rolled well enough for a PC to have a premonition about the bandits a week ahead of time with details added, I'd give them a growing sense of unease as they approached Carcasonne, probably ending with something like "get ready, it's coming very soon, and it's going to be bad" a few minutes before the ambush. With more detail, they might get a sense that they're about to be outnumbered or the like. I might also have the character disquieted around the color yellow, if the leader of the bandits wore a yellow surcoat. Things like that.
Admittedly, as witnessed by some of my examples above, I expect I'd be better about keeping the details vague with time and planning. Off the cuff, I'm not as good about such things. I still don't see anything I mentioned above as being particularly game-breaking or beyond the spirit of the Virtue. Varying sagas and all that. As it is, I've never seen anyone actually put the Virtue on a character sheet, so it's never come up in play.
Pre(before) cognito (I know) is different by definition than a feeling something is coming and maybe some details as to what it could be. To know the future would break the limit of time, which aside from the question of hermetic breakthroughs also violates causality in any non scripted reality, including a roleplaying environment. Some form of hyper reflex ability and folk ken (body reading) might produce such a bonus, but premonitions would not.
Well, I suppose I deserved a little hair-splitting in return. 
But really, is pre(before) monere(to warn) all that different?
I don't see anything in my post above yours that would break a roleplaying game, violated causality or no. And, I'm not the one who wrote an Ability that explicitly lets you know that you'll be confronted with mortal danger in roughly a week's time. That is explicitly at least some knowledge of the future. The way to fix this, of course, would be to have Premonitions warn you about what will happen if present events play out, as Hermetic augury does. That's pretty much how I'd have it work regardless of the in-game metaphysics of the Virtue. I wouldn't ever rob a player of agency because of how they built their character.
As far as your mention of a bonus, I'm confused by that. I haven't mentioned giving anyone bonuses to die rolls at all. In fact, I've been against it. Or, are you referring to a general good, rather than numbers?
It seems that the only thing we disagree about is what we actually discuss.
My focus was always on what the player is entitled to expect. What the storyguide may give (over and above that) in a certain situation is an entirely different question.
I believe you are correct. Shall we shake hands and go our separate ways?