I don't really like the idea of the Redcaps being door-to-door salesmen with samples of the Encyclopedia Bonisagus. It doesn't have a very medieval feel to me.
Practically speaking, why would a covenant need to see the folio before ordering their copy? Most magi would simply say just ship me my copy here is the payment instead of waiting years to see what the folio contains and only then placing their order unless you are assuming the folio contains worthless information.
My assumption is that the folio is the pinnacle of Bonisagus research for the previous 7 years and it better be good otherwise why are magi of other Houses surrendering their apprentices upon request to House Bonisagus.
The magi would want to make sure that it is relevant to them before paying. One of our PCs just helped make the most recent folio and a level 50 Cran spell (summon 100 wolves) make it in. Obviously the number of magi to whom this is helpful is very low. Supposing a mix of spells and tractatus, not every folio will be interesting to every Covenant/magi. So while the 1123 might be useful to the PC covenant the 122X might not be at all.
So it would make sense that a covenant would want to if not browse the new folio before buying, than at least getting a summary of what topics made it in (two Rego tractatus, and yes please! Two Order of Hermes lore and a spell mastery for a spell on an art I do not care about: pass!)
Ok rereading the text I agree with you that the route is determined by House Mercere therefore certamen would not be the norm and the Tremere angle is a dead-end.
This would mean negotiations would simply be about how to appeal to House Mercere. Mercere's motivation is presumably profit in which case their goal should be to deliver the maximum number folios for the least cost in the minimum time. The time factor should be 7 years at which time a new folio comes out and the process repeats. The maximum number of folios would be about 70 covenants with the other 30 or so likely not wanting the folio (Winter or too poor). That leaves the problem being the cheapest way to manufacture and deliver an average of 10 folios per year.
Assuming that problem can be solved then the longest wait for a folio would be about 7 years and that all the past folios should be common in most covenants.
I can see a simple summary of the folio contents being sent out with the first redcap to visit the covenant after the folio's creation however to wait years to find out what is in the folio before ordering makes no sense unless the cost of the folio is significant.
How much are magi paying for folios in your campaign?
My assumption based upon the description is that the folio is free and your only costs are 3 seasons of mundane scribes and materials, say 10 mythic pounds or a pawn of vis max. At that rate it doesn't make any sense not to buy the folio even if it is not immediately useful.
Our covenant got a copy for free as one of the PCs was on the committee . We got an old 12th century one as part of our settling package.
This thread has led to a conversation within the group. Since they are free from cow and calf rule, they would likely just cost a few pawns, the exact number being yet undermined.
I have a very personal use for Folios in game: they allow me to introduce breakthroughs I want the game to have, such as the introduction of Target: Pair (equivalent to Part) and longevity rituals that don't leave the magus sterile (which was a plot point in HBO Ars).
In my games, the folios have only ever been a minor thing, since we didn't want to deal with it. They were paraded around so everyone could take a look at the folios and decide if they wanted anything from it - then at the end of the circuit they went to Durenmar, where you can easily find the folio you're looking for when you get permission to access the libraries.
We did have a Bonisagus make a breakthrough and mass-produce copies of his spell to give to every covenant in the tribunal because he's an overachiever, though.
Just to add one possible interpretation from our saga, playing Elk's Run in Hibernia around 1220.
The folio of 1158 arrives at Elk's Run in 1219. As a young founder Oswald had ambitions for the library but not excessive funds to negotiate a place early in the route. The covenant pays 3pvf to keep the folio for three seasons, barely enough to copy it if they had been well prepared to do so, which they were not. This could mean that 55-60 covenants have had the folio before them, each having had it for three seasons, and the folio taking one season in transit every year. This, of course, assumes that the redcap has prepared for the transport, so that no time is wasted in transit. TBH, I would assume that some time has been wasted, and fewer covenants have been served in practice.
The next folio of 1165 arrived only a few years after under the very same conditions. Presumably a little extra seniority played in Oswald's favour at that point.
At the same time as the 1165 arrived, the covenant got an offer to receive the folios of 1109 and 1123, which had, at that point, completed their rounds, and the Mercere try to squeeze a few more pawns of vis out of them. They can have one folio for two seasons for 1pvf or five seasons for 2pvf. The folio of 1116 has not been mentioned. It could have been lost, or delayed, and nobody have inquired either. If the folios visit one covenant per year, a little more than 100 covenants have been served. That is probably almost, but not quite, all the covenants in the order.
Contrary to what I suggested previously in the thread, the covenant has been free to copy the folio for their own keeping.
I have no idea if this is useful. It is just how I played it as SG in that saga. I would be curious to learn how others have played it.
