Also keep in mind that many such research attempts will fail simply because the magus failed to live long enough to complete it. After all, young magi will have a low MT, and thus have to work slowly, while the older magi will have a greater chance of dying/entering final twillight.
One of the great advantages of this is that that increases the number of intresting lab texts laying around... (More story potential...)
Well, that's a not unreasonable approach. But it has nothing to do with the rules. Its a SG fiat as to why the RAW don't have any real effect on the setting and goes back to my earlier point that the RAW are for PCs, not NPCs.
[quote="ulf"After all, young magi will have a low MT, and thus have to work slowly, [/quote]
Even young Bonisagi are likely to have pretty decent Magi theory skills, as many of them are likely to have an affinity or puissance in that area. Further, the assumption of 40 years I made already assumes a pretty slow workpace given the numbers posted above.
[quote="Vormaerin"]
Decent in this case would mean 6+, good would be 11+. (As this are the levels when you get to use higher risk factors). An important aspect here might be the question of whether or not puissance helps here - it's not a total, after all - has more in common with scribing and teaching levels...
--
On average I'd say the a hermetic project will take about 80 seasons of dedicated work (not necessarily consecutive). (this is a rather low number actually, which is why I'd increase the number of breakthrough points required for such a breakthrough in any saga I run).
On the other hand a major breakthrough would require about 60 seasons, and these are known to happen every now and then.
There are 3 main reason why major breakthrough happen, and hermetic don't (as I see things). 1) Far more magi will have the hubris to attempt a major breakthrough, 2) 33% increase in research time does reduce the chance the project will ever be completed, 3) A prideful magus has a lot of chance to be corrupted in all those years - espesially as frustration increases...
Speaking as a researcher, I have to say that whilst I think the OR rules have their weak spots, they're not the ones being highlighted. What people are forgetting is that the player mindset is not normally that of a normal, in-setting person.
Researchers die young, warped to hell and back. For a player, that's an acceptable price for cool stories with your friends. For a typical person, after the warping begins to mount, other things start to have a bit more appeal, and the research is likely to get sidelined.
People in the setting don't know if their research will work or not. Players do, they just don't know how long it will take. As such, if after 20 years, all the character has to show for it is a lot of spells about butterflies, only one of which has any even vaguely non-standard hermetic component, they'll be discouraged and give up. Most real world research goes nowhere, and though magi have more time, money and resources, not to mention self-determination, they're still human and will start to face facts.
Likewise, the player knows what result they'll get, the character does not beyond a general idea and hope and thus has less impetus to drive themselves on.
People's interests change. A magus who starts out interested in butterflies might shift towards bats when discovering an odd colony new nesting in the covenant.
Even if you ignore the unfortunate use of the mystery rules for non-mysteries, it takes a very long time for anything new to percolate through the order unless it's truly universal. Specialised breakthroughs might reach like-minded individuals quickly, but anything less is likely to be ignored.
Frankly, I see research functioning slowly in groups, much as in the real world. The pater supervises his students and over the course of a few years, each grind out a discovery point or two in related fields. Every fifty to a hundred years or so, some genius spots the points of similarity and a real breakthrough occurs, rather than just a decent selection of not purely hermetic effects. This not only gives a more realistic rate of progress, given the hazards, but also means that there's a corpus of knowledge out there that may be accessed. The publications of the Bonisagi shift from spells (always difficult create anyway) to lab-notes on research and the very occasional partially hermetic spell which is useful in some way.
Pardon me if I'm misunderstanding anyone's arguments, but it seem to me that everyone is in agreement that the rules work for PCs, but you need a substantial dollop of SG dictated failure thrown into the system before you can try to use it to model NPC research (ie, the NPCs play by harder rules...).
Well, as i see things the rules aren't that great for PCs too. They don't encourage enough stories, have too-sharp limits on useful Magic Theory scores, discourage elder (warped) magi from participating in OR, discourage research in high auras and the use of high-level effects/Arts (when Warping is considered the principal cost), and more.
I therefore recommend simply using the Ancient Magic rules.
Cheers,
Yair
I think Fhtagn makes some good points from an interesting perspective.
In my experience, research is really hard to stick at (I'm too inpatient I suspect) and you really have to have drive to answer even the smallest, most highly defined question and then only if you have uninterrupted time and resources easily available.
This last paragraph describes the "strategic" approach of modern day research institutions - such cooperation towards a single goal would be difficult to achieve in the OoH as it is portrayed in canon.
I suspect the amount of less than half-completed OR is high, but each bright young Bonisagus wants to reach high - practical, goal directed research is not the way to House Acclaim IIRC. The result is a whole lot of partly finished rubbish of some use...
IMO, the only House likely to complete OR in the XIII order would be House Tremere - they are pragmatic and think long term, unlike most Bonisagi (although they might sponsor a succession of talented Bonisagi with a "scholarship" of sorts I suppose).
They're like a research institute... take this scenario:
- House Tremere picks a Minor Breakthrough to work at (perhaps increasing the maximum Hermetic Duration beyond a Year, a not so glorious but useful goal, perhaps as a step towards improving the duration of an Aegis casting, eh?)
- they setup a dedicated covenant to support such research in a site optimised for such a Breakthrough
- they sponsor a smart young Bonisagus (or other magus with the necessary aptitude) to start the research and appoint successors quickly when their incumbent researcher becomes incapable
- they prevent any distractions to the researcher
- they funnel resources (appropriate books, vis, Lab texts on the topic)
- they maintain a long-term interest, even if there is a change in Primus
AND
every now and then they actually make progress - not Order shattering Hermetic Breakthroughs perhaps, but progress nonetheless.
Under this scenario I can see OR being achieved with Mark's projected speed, but otherwise I'd consider that the nature of XII magi would result in the scenario Fhtagn describes.
Cheers,
Lachie
Actually, you get a pretty good amount of Acclaim from OR, even if you don't succeed. You get it for the spells invented, the insights stabilized, and for the achievement itself.
I don't consider the story issue to be a flaw in the system, particularly. It is easy to dangle insight via story in front of the researcher. The objective of the rules is to account for what happens when they aren't doing story stuff.
Haven't really thought about the Magic Theory score issue. Its not bothered me so far.
Elder magi are discouraged from doing anything at all. That, if a flaw, is a flaw of the Warping system, not of Original Research.
The last two things are, generally speaking, undesirable outcomes. Its not clear to me that "avoid all Warping" is the mantra of researchers, though. I think its good that you can have cautious turtles and reckless rabbits in the research race.
I agree with Jarkman in regard to the Tremere being the House after Bonisagus most likely to succeed in making an Hermetic Breakthrough for more-or-less the reasons he outlines.
I believe, however, that House Bonisagus, under the existing Original Research rules, should have been turning out multiple Breakthroughs each century. One must remember that the Primus or Prima of House Bonisagus has the ability to direct the research of all save the most senior members of the House. If he or she determines that a key Breakthrough is needed, then he or she can assign a dozen or two of the most talented Bonisagi to the project. They will be instructed to share their results. Because this is House Bonisagus, they can all be taught sufficient Magic Theory (8, with a specialisation in "Traditionalist" giving them an effective 9) that, with their Puissant Magic Theory, gives them an effective Magic Theory 11, or enough for the +3 modifier on the chart.
Assuming they are told to pursue relatively "safe" paths of research (e.g. no higher than 3rd Magnitude), they can still expect to have a successful experiment that grants them a shot at Stabilisation once every four months of research. Of these, approximately 20% or so will succeed, meaning that every five months there is an 80% chance that any given Bonisagus research will achieve a Stabilisation. Take another month to write it up for publication and distribution to the other Magi in the research team, and it's once every six months.
Assume that the research only takes up half their time. Once every three years, there's an 80% every Bonisagus researcher on the project will gain +3 Breakthrough Points. So, if we decide to allow them to spend yet more time on other projects, we'll say once every four years.
+3 x 12 researchers means that within four years they will have enough Stabilisation Points to achieve a Minor Breakthrough. Obviously, they'll have to read up on the research conducted by everyone in the team, but with just that four years of research a dedicated READER on the team--the one who is expected to synthesise their results--could have enough points to make the Minor Breakthrough, design a spell with it, and get it into circulation. Obviously, more seasons would be needed to allow for the randomness of when the Stabilizations were actually achieved, so we'll tack on another two-three years.
Within six to seven years, assigning a sixth of the House to a project will get you a Minor Breakthrough. Make it a third of the House and, under the current rules, you could get enough Stabilization for an HERMETIC Breakthrough within that same time period. Allowing for reading and synthesis, say it would take a decade.
The Order has been around for four-and-a-half centuries. In that time, there have been numerous Limits that the Order has dearly wanted to surpass. Aging and Warping are the two biggest because they define the lifespan of a Magus. They would thus have undergone the most determined attempts throughout its history. Under the Original Research rules, relatively modest groups working on the Hermetic Limits should have surpassed them centuries ago.
As I've pointed out elsewhere, a young, radical Magus willing to risk serious Twilight could perhaps make an Hermetic Breakthrough within a decade of beginning dedicated research. There are people that ambitious within the Order, and once the Limit of Warping has been conquered the floodgates are opened. The Order of Hermes would be in the midst of an ongoing revolution in research.
Well, that assumes that the limits of warping and Aging are flaws in Hermetic Theory that can be fixed, not immutable boundaries of magic in general. In fact, a House obsessed with those two limits that can never be broken would be one explanation for why nothing useful actually gets done...
That's a good point actually.
The OR rules make mention of this - Bonisagi usually try to focus on a big project and disdain actually attempting to make achievable minor breakthroughs.
Lachie
I agree.
I think that the main issue is the OR rules tell us to describe the process of research projects that are possible. They don't tell us anything about which research projects are possible in a particular saga; that's something for the troupe to decide. There are basically two parts to the research project: the out-of-character part when the troupe decides what can be done, and the in-character part which uses the OR rules to decide how long it takes for the project to complete.
If lots of research breakthroughs are possible in your saga, then yes there will be many research breakthroughs made. If only a few are possible then research breakthroughs are rare. In either case there could be about the same number of researchers in the saga. Remember the characters don't know which are possible and which are not, so many researchers may spend their time on projects like trying to break an "unbreakable" limit of magic. The only thing that is different about PCs in this regard is that (unless the story guide is a bastard) the players know whether or not their character's project is actually one that can succeed, or is one that is ultimately hopeless. And of course, the player can compromise with the troupe to find a project that can succeed, if they want to.
The problem with this is that the Prima of House Bonisagus has no idea what is actually possible and what isn't. True if he has a good magic theory score, he might have an idea, but he still can't be sure.
For example, to think of a modern day example: NASA suddenly decides to expend all its research effort on creating a manned "spaceship" that could travel backwards through time. Just because NASA's senior administrators (and even researchers) have issued a policy document, doesn't mean that the research will be successful. Perhaps it just can't be done, no matter how many dollars, time and resource is applied.
The same thing applies here. Yes, if the Bonisagus try to research something possible, then sure they might be able to do it relatively quickly. But they don't know which projects are possible, and as they aren't privy to the game mechanics they can't tell whether a lack of success is due to "not enough research" or "it can't actually be done".
As others have said, only if it is possible to break the limit of warping, and only if the magus tries to research possible things.
Which still leads us back to "The rules aren't for the NPCs 
" 
One interesting thing is that very few of the Bonisagi written up in the game have much discussed anything about their research. And those that are are generally on what are likely to be wild goose chases. The Bonisagus in Heorot wants to integrate a norse magical tradition he can't even prove exists. There is one at Irencillia researching faerie magic for which he apparently has no aptitude whatsoever. Felix Necromius is trying to do something that's unlikely to produce anything except maybe a type of lichdom. Or they are the best living Intellego mage and spend their time on new intellego spells.
It does seem like House Bonisagus just has a bad approach to matters of research. Good thing they are self funding. They'd never keep a grant this way. 
I can see how you could see it that way. Personally I don't, but perhaps it is just a matter of semantics.
I think that the rules are the same for PCs and NPCs; it is just that the players have extra information about how the game mechanics work that are not accessible in-character. This extra information means that players can know whether or not a particular research project is feasible. Whether or not the players use this extra information, or if the storyguide keeps this information secret, is up to the troupe to decide.
To use another example, take the combat rules. The players know the game mechanics and can calculate the chances of a character with a particular Attack Score and Damage injuring another character with a particular Defense Score and Soak. The players can use this extra knowledge to make intelligent decisions in combat, or even whether to engage in combat at all. NPC characters don't have this precise knowledge; sure they may have a rough idea who is better, but they don't have access to the precise mechanics. So, they can't make such precise calls. This doesn't mean that PCs and NPCs use different combat rules, just that the PCs can use the rules better.
The problem with PCs is just that the players have a tendency towards munchkinism and can finesse the rules in their favour.
I don't really see those things as equivalent. Of course, I don't generally tell the PCs the soaks and defense totals of their foes, either
In the saga I ran that lasted 4 years and covered 80 years of game play, one of the PCs was a Bonisagus who was a lab rat and was very keen on OR (I used some house rules modified from stuff found on Project Redcap, since this was 3rd/4th edition). If her colleagues are treated the same as she is, then the order will be in constant ferment as Bonisagi produce a steady supply of breakthroughs of the minor and occassionally major sort. But if the NPCs are hindered by the sorts of SG fiat related failure mooted in this thread, then she becomes the House's superstar.
I don't think this is any sort of insurmountable problem. The storyguide can finesse this to taste. Its just why a lot of folks think that the RAW are 'too easy' even when they are pretty hard. You can't apply them to everyone.. you have to nerf the NPCs if you want to maintain a fairly slow changing Order as seems to fit the default setting.
No, but they do understand them. Likewise, a PC knows that if they continue with research, they will get breakthroughs and they will, eventually, get their full breakthrough, as negotiated with the Storyguide. An NPC has no such guarantee and far less motivation to continue past a few failures or only minor successes. A PC is also not the one making the decisions rationally in character, or at least not necessarily so. An NPC, progressing through research, will warp and mutate, gaining stange airs and possibly becoming almost inhuman. To an NPC, this is a huge price. To a PC, probably the same. To a player, however, it's an acceptable price and a source of fun story hooks. The player doesn't have to deal with the fact that spell-casting now causes him to scream in pain, but the NPC does.
Exactly. And the players certainly know their own Attack/Defense Score, die rolls, and Damage/Soak scores. And they know that their opponents have these things too. They also understand the mechanics of things like wound penalties. This is a much more informed position than NPCs are fighting from.
Precisely.