Unfortunately it seems that what has been recovered from durenmar.de on Project Redcap does not include the simulation, at least not so that I've been able to find it. I've poked around a bit, but so far no luck. Although if there has been an unpublished simulation, I would absolutely love to get access to the results or the thoughts that went into it. A lot of what I've discovered so far is that age is really sensitive to the parameters you feed into the model.
As for my own, I'm still tuning the model and reworking how I handle some elements — Twilight is in particular something of a thorny issue to tangle with, as are assumptions about how fast one's longevity ritual can improve. But I can give a basic rundown.
So, the first thing I did was basically just purely code up the aging and crisis tables and see how mundanes fared, just to get a handle on whether aging rolls were producing wildly unrealistic results. And I'm actually fairly pleased with how reasonable it turned out. I ran 10 000 mundane people with randomised stamina between -3 and 3, and living conditions that varied from -2 to 2, in both cases approximately normally around 0. To simplify things I assumed that all of these people had already made it to 35, so infant mortality wasn't a factor in manipulating the averages, and that the only thing that could kill them was decrepitude and crises — violence, accidents, and so on weren't a factor.
I got back:
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
36.00 51.00 58.00 59.76 67.00 115.00
The upper tail is a bit long, but only 0.25% of people managed to hit 100, and that number would be even lower if I factored in, well, infant mortality, people dying young, accidents, and so on. The model isn't perfectly in line with human life expectancies, but it's close enough that I'm satisfied with it as a game estimate. Although having good medical care would skew this upwards, but I didn't bother coding that here.
Magi are tougher, partly because they have ways of screwing with this system, and partly because I wanted to extend it to multiple causes of death. There were four things tracked (so far): death by aging crisis, by decrepitude hitting 5, by violence or accident, and by going into Final Twilight. The assumptions are pretty much connected to those, although I won't go into full details yet, as some of them are still being tinkered with.
But the important ones are how fast do skills and arts advance, what sort of access to a longevity ritual does a maga of a given age have, how deadly is just living and adventuring, and how frequently does a maga need to avoid Twilight.
Basically how I addressed the first two was actually work out what percentage of expected XP is going to be going into CrCo and Magic Theory, and derived an estimate for what their current lab total should be, and then checked every decade to improve their longevity ritual to keep in step with their advancing skill. Save those who are rich or specialists in CrCo, which basically just got a faster advancement to their effective LR lab total. This is where I think my discrepancies from my memory of the earlier simulation come into play, but I'll explain why in a moment.
Avoiding Twilight mainly comes up when you work out how many botches a year a maga is going to be having. I've played around with it, and I'm not really satisfied with my numbers. Typically I've been nudging it between 4-8, for one or two a season, modified by a few other things, but this is one thing that's getting expanded and tweaked as I go on.
Oddly, death by accident's pretty easy. I just did some research and I'm estimating yearly chance of death based on historical data about violent death. This in many ways involves some iffy assumptions just given the nature of historical data given the poor records we have of cause of death, and mixing them with things like uncertain population sizes, but it's not too bad, I don't think, and it's never dominated the wizardly death rate, so it's not something I'm too concerned about.
As for my actual preliminary results, again I won't do a full breakdown, since it'd only get all revised in, oh, half an hour when I run the next simulation, but broadly speaking a maga can expect to live to about 172 (median 180), and the longest I can recall spotting off the top of my head was about 250. Furthermore she's overwhelmingly likely to die by having her decrepitude hit 5, which accounts for 70% of all deaths. The rest are more or less evenly split between aging crises and accident or violence, with virtually none due to entering Final Twilight.
Which is why I was really interested in trying to find the old study again, seeing as they had about 80 extra years of life expectancy, and most deaths due to Final Twilight. Given that my magi are racking up large decrepitude scores, I suspect the primary issue is in how I'm calculating longevity rituals, and possibly to a lesser extent how I'm checking for incidents of Twilight, but naturally I can't be sure.