In my current saga in Provence, the PC magi have made the probably wise, albeit a bit boring, decision to stay out of the messy civil war unfolding at the Tolosa Paratge covenant in Toulouse, despite the fact that resolving it could benefit their own schemes. This leaves me to figure out a resolution to the violent upheaval there on my own, as it'll affect other plot threads.
What do you guys think is the most likely outcome of the situation described there in Faith and Flame? Has it come up in your sagas? How did it play out for you?
You need to decide for your saga how the crusade of Louis VIII in Provence from 1226 on will work out. Will 1229 the Treaty of Paris be signed as it was in history, and thereby the Papal inquisition let loose in Provence?
It seems to me that the whole conflict at this covenant is rooted in mistakes and guilt. Marc thought Augustus was possessed by a demon; when he discovered he was wrong he allowed St Tropez to kill him. St Tropez does not understand this; he doesn’t realize Marc offered himself up for justice.
It’s too bad your players aren’t interested because there’s a real roleplay opportunity here for someone willing to find out what happened and share the facts with St Tropez, who is not a bad person.
Regardless, NPCs exist to make stories for your players and if your players don’t care, the real question is “how can I use the events of this covenant to make the saga more fun and interesting?” If you want to emphasize the chaos of the crusade, the covenant implodes. If you want the Order to stabilize and survive through the crusade, the covenant makes peace.
In fact, you might leave the covenant divided until such time as the player characters pick a side in the tribunal’s debate over the crusade. If the player characters get involved in the crusade, whichever side they back also comes out ahead in Tolosa. If the player characters avoid getting involved in crusade, Beatrice comes to Tolosa, prompts Mariola out of her sanctum, and peace is restored. That is, even if the characters don’t get involved, events at the covenant mirror choices the players have made.
Alternatively, if you want to give the players another fallen covenant to explore, let these magi NPCs murder each other.
I guess my suggestion is that “what’s most likely to happen?” might be the wrong question, in favor of “what is the most fun outcome for your game?”
I think it's less that they don't care and more that the magi have chosen to prioritize their personal safety. I can't say it's not a realistic decision, and it's consistent with their general attitude of keeping their heads down in the war. You're making a lot of sense here and giving me a lot to think about. Thanks.
There is little room for a peaceable resolution without significant work done by people who aren't mired in, in my opinion. Depending on the speed of your saga, it's worth realizing that mostly Tolosa won't be attending Tribunal, especially those stuck inside. When the NEXT tribunal rolls around, I believe there's a siege going on in standard history (that's where our saga is now).
A few ideas you can pull on to see if any work for your saga.
The ones outside can finally starve resources so the magi cannot work inside anymore - while some might be content striving on bravely, being totally unable to get any vis or do research, trouble getting food... Sometimes willpower break.
More interesting, maybe something bad happens inside, Mariola dies or twilights badly. Carolus outside gets incesned and tries to finish the fued, magi die. Tolosa is weakened and falling apart before the siege happens. Winner is a coinflip, though if a fight happens I'd bet on the Flambeau winning.
If you want a PC to have reasons to involve...Maybe there's evidence that one of the (unnamed) magi in Tolosa Paratge is being manipulated by a demon to cause the strife, and Marc was just aiming the wrong way.
The lingering split in Tolosa creates a resonance in the city and the regio, and the Regio becomes inaccessible. Carolus panics over the state of Mariola and finally looks for aid from the outside in re-establishing access to the broken pathway to their inner Regio.
Someone with a long running displeasure or rivalry with some of the magi outside use this as an opportunity to wound or cripple the magi outside, while pointing blame at those inside. (Maybe some bored Tytalus.)
If players don't intervene during the second siege of Toulouse(1228-1229), when the dust settles and people can reach the city again, are any magi even alive still?
Ultimately the decision as to what is most likely in Ars Magica whenever PCs don't get involved is whatever best conforms to history as recorded. The other basic guideline is that when PCs make the decision to not get involved the situation goes as badly for them as possible, as though fate will actively work against them whenever they do not seize the reigns, fundamentally following a narrative imperative. Between the two guidelines I would favor the narrative if they are in conflict since that prevents the players from taking the perspective of "we already know how history turns out so we don't need to get involved"
It is a frequent possibility that if a PCs covenant is not directly under threat, they can decide to ignore what is happening a dozen miles away. In fact, even the Code tends to encourage not to intervene. As a consequence, as ST, I often have to keep in mind the option that they will choose not to get involve - and sometimes, I don't spend too much work on the story until I am sure they will get involved, to save time.
Now regarding your situation, you can consider the following points:
is there something worth retrieving in Tolosa Paratge ? a precious book (high quality, high level), a unique item, documents on an almost complete Original Research;
which outcome would lead to interesting stories for the PCs covenant: Bitter surviving magis wanting revenge for not being helped ? Proof of witchcraft and the existence of the Order (with names and possible location) leading to an early, local Inquisition-type investigation by the Church? Power vacuum that could be seized to settle political advantage by letting the PCs support some local nobility ?
Once you have identified what suits you the most for the future of your saga, plant the seeds. It can be a survivor - like the autocrat or the head scribe carrying incomplete copy of a precious document. The PCs need to act now, before the covenant is set ablaze or the treasure is dispersed. Or it can come five-ten years later, with surviving members reappearing during a Tribunal with proof of code violation from the players (maybe the opportunities for such violation were engineered by the survivor as a trap for their vengeance)...
The possibility of an Inquisition can be a looming threat, and could force the PCs to "sanitize" the covenant to prevent such occurrence. Maybe there was senior Mercere magi who settled a few years back in the covenant, with all his maps, networks and names, and this information should better be destroyed than salvaged - could the PCs be even hired/paid by House Mercere to do that: erase all documents, location and name of magis ?
As far as the PCs having motives to get involved go, the bait was that the PCs are entangled with some intrigues related to the magi of Jardin from Through the Aegis; specifically, Ahenobarbus of Tremere is a political obstacle as two of the PCs are essentially allies of Protendus at Aedes Mercurii. I framed possibly helping with Alyssa of Trianoma's rescue attempt as a way to get her on their side versus Ahenobarbus, and basically they were thinking that sounded like a whole lot of trouble.
You're also making good points about that I should be thinking about what should produce future story hooks. I gotta brainstorm a bit!
That's a whole other ball of wax. I'm planning for a similar treaty at the end of the war, but with less power given to the Church, because Queen Blanche of Castile, mother and regent of Louis, is being influenced by a faerie cult dedicated to Artemis (basically, the faerie version of the Wolf's Court cult from Mythic Locations turned into sort of a poor pagan woman's equivalent of the Assassins) that's stuck its nose into the war. Not totally sure how I'm going to implement that and I hope I somehow become smarter before the late 1220s.
You did ask for how things played out in our sagas, so I'll add a bit here.
Our Saga
For comparison, the saga I'm in really can't ignore the Tolosa Paratge problem; Our Jerbiton is Mariola's filia, and she also dislikes the crusaders for destroying cities and towns. The Jerbiton was able to force entry into the regio by citing a need to speak with Mariola and promising not to bring them any supplies or support. (She then got most of their voting sigils to bring to Tribunal for them.)
During the Tribunal, the outside faction ended up being sanctioned for effectively trapping the others in there.
Now we have the second siege of Tolouse, and we're using sneaky plans to destroy their food sources to try and break the siege.
This doesn't really help your problem, since your issue is the players NOT doing things.
Are you okay with the players stepping back and letting it play out, or are there parts of it you want directly involved in the saga? I personally don't like the narrative that not getting involved should always turn out really badly - but the opportunity for 'really bad' should be there, and if they don't get involved, other magi are likely to get involved anyway.