Twilight Comprehension Rolls

[APSmith]

@DIREWOLF75

Would casting this spell on himself be a reckless and unpredictable act of madness? Or a somewhat-risky but in general very quick and productive way to increase his magical knowledge?

Not complete madness no. But a VERY risky way to MAYBE get knowledge. Might very well LOOSE knowledge as well, or even gain a very damaging Flaw.

I guess it all depends on the level of (perceived) risk, doesn't it? I will post some numbers shortly...

However magi are not totally averse to risk when it comes to their magical advancement: at least some magi study from vis or experiment in the lab, for instance. Both of these have the potential to go badly wrong.

Worst of all however is the question in gameterms at least, how sure can you be that those Cnf points wont be desperately needed the day after?

Well, this is an argument for NEVER spending Cnf on anything - tomorrow could always be worse! However in my experience, players are willing to spend Cnf points if they perceive the roll as very important.

And, if i were SG, unless there was a reason for it, i could easily disallow an apprentice using Cnf during a twilight, simply because most would quite probably NOT be confident about getting through one unscathed.
A very selfconfident apprentice perhaps, but not most.

Yes, this was more or less my original argument: magi should not be confident about getting through Twilight unscathed, ergo they shouldn't be allowed to spend Cnf points.

[APSmith]

OK, here are some numbers which I came up with. Assume a typical magus with Intelligence +3, Enigmatic Wisdom 0. This is based on a Twilight triggered by a gain of 2 Warping Points (e.g. a magical double botch).

Chance of a good Twilight outcome (approximate percentages)
                       Cnf points spent
Warping Score      0           1           2

    0              77%         90%         96%
    1              70%         87%         95%
    2              63%         82%         93%
    3              55%         77%         90%
    4              45%         72%         87%
    5              37%         63%         82%
    6              30%         55%         77%

Chance of Twilight lasting for Moon or more
(approximate percentages for Warping 5 or 6)

                       Cnf points spent
Warping Score      0           1           2

    0              0%          0%          0%
    1              0%          0%          0%
    2              0.01%       0.01%       0.01%
    3              0.27%       0.27%       0.27%
    4              2.43%       2.43%       2.43%
    5              70%         45%         23%
    6              77%         55%         30%

Before your Warping Score gets to 5, you can enter Twilight with only a very low risk of being AWOL for more than a day. On average, you can undergo 10 Twilights before accumulating 75 Warping Points (score of 5). Without spending Cnf, 6 would typically be good, 4 bad. Spending 1 Cnf, typically 8 are good and 2 bad. Spending 2 Cnf (or 1 Cnf + Enigmatic Wisdom 3), typically 9 are good and 1 bad.

With Cnf, these look like pretty good odds... With a Warping Score of 5 or more, the time starts to become an issue! Still, if you have a very good Cnf score and/or have Enigmatic Wisdom, you can push it
for another dozen Twilights or so, only occasionally being absent for a month or season.

In summary, if Cnf use is allowed, deliberate Twilight becomes a viable strategy for accelerated (near-instant) magical learning, although it is not without its risks. It is riskier than learning from vis, for example, but not insanely risky...

[DIREWOLF75]

On average, you can undergo 10 Twilights before accumulating 75 Warping Points (score of 5).

Meaning you have a 75 year lower lifetime limit due to warping.
How much more would or could you learn or do in those years?

[APSmith]

@DIREWOLF75

On average, you can undergo 10 Twilights before accumulating 75 Warping Points (score of 5).

Meaning you have a 75 year lower lifetime limit due to warping.
How much more would or could you learn or do in those years?

The extra Warping brings you somewhat closer to Final Twilight, yes. However the exact timing of a Final Twilight is highly unpredictable; Warping XP do not correspond to years of life on a one-to-one basis.

Look at this from the perspective of a PC magus - or rather the player: How many sagas last for 100+ game years, and how often do PC magi get to go into Final Twilight? Never, basically. Starting out with a Warping Score of 5 is thus going to make no practical difference...

From the perspective of a young and ambitious NPC magus, sure, this means you might go into Final Twilight at the age of, say, 120 instead of 150. So what? That's an awfully long way away... compared to the fact that you can get this extra power NOW!

Also, as already mentioned, if Twilight experiences are mostly positive, then why fear Final Twilight?! I can see that some magi might even be eager to hasten their transition to "the other side"...

[Jabir]

It's a lot easier to avoid Final Twilight if you can use confidence to reliably comprehend your twilight experiences. I'm not sure that's such a good thing when applied to the entire Order.

[dwightemarsh]

While you gain benefits when you comprehend Twilight and gain flaws when you fail to comprehend twilight, the wizard doesn't really control what benefits are gained or what is lost. If my Verditius who is unable to cast Spontanious Magic picked up "Diedne Magic" as a Major Virtue, I would be sad. If my Verditius picked up "Weak Enchanter" as a flaw, I would be very sad. If my Verditius, with his Intellego 5 and Aquam 0 picked up the L25 InAq spell Voice of the Lake, I probably wouldn't be that happy. If my Verditius lost the Aegis of the Hearth spell that I know, meaning that the only person in the covenant who could cast it has "Waster of Vis" I would be sad.

I think most players who might be tempted to engage in this kind of behavior would want more control over what the result would be.

[gerg]

@APSmith

@DIREWOLF75

And, if i were SG, unless there was a reason for it, i could easily disallow an apprentice using Cnf during a twilight, simply because most would quite probably NOT be confident about getting through one unscathed. A very selfconfident apprentice perhaps, but not most.

Yes, this was more or less my original argument: magi should not be confident about getting through Twilight unscathed, ergo they shouldn't be allowed to spend Cnf points.

I don't find this argument compelling. If my companion character is a merchant, and a bandit comes at him with a knife, then he would probably not be that confident about getting through unscathed; should he not be allowed to use a Confidence point on his defense roll because of that?

[APSmith]

@Jabir

It's a lot easier to avoid Final Twilight if you can use confidence to reliably comprehend your twilight experiences. I'm not sure that's such a good thing when applied to the entire Order.

Yes, this could actually have quite a profound effect in delaying Final Twilight! Elderly magi are likely to have higher Cnf scores; being able to add (say) +9 (with a Cnf score of 3) to the Comprehension roll makes Final Twilight much less likely, even if you have a Warping Score of 12 or so.

[APSmith]

@gerg

@APSmith

Yes, this was more or less my original argument: magi should not be confident about getting through Twilight unscathed, ergo they shouldn't be allowed to spend Cnf points.

I don't find this argument compelling. If my companion character is a merchant, and a bandit comes at him with a knife, then he would probably not be that confident about getting through unscathed; should he not be allowed to use a Confidence point on his defense roll because of that?

Upon reflection, I agree it is better to legislate where Cnf may or may not be spent on the basis of game-balance issues, rather than woolly notions of whether or not the character ought to feel confident in her action.

[DIREWOLF75]

@gerg

@APSmith

@DIREWOLF75

And, if i were SG, unless there was a reason for it, i could easily disallow an apprentice using Cnf during a twilight, simply because most would quite probably NOT be confident about getting through one unscathed. A very selfconfident apprentice perhaps, but not most.

Yes, this was more or less my original argument: magi should not be confident about getting through Twilight unscathed, ergo they shouldn't be allowed to spend Cnf points.

I don't find this argument compelling. If my companion character is a merchant, and a bandit comes at him with a knife, then he would probably not be that confident about getting through unscathed; should he not be allowed to use a Confidence point on his defense roll because of that?

He probably should. But if the player is using the Cnf to use the merchant to go out hunting down bandits, then maybe not as much...

Upon reflection, I agree it is better to legislate where Cnf may or may not be spent on the basis of game-balance issues, rather than woolly notions of whether or not the character ought to feel confident in her action.

Absolutely. What i meant was mostly that if its REALLY "out of character" or the player is abusing the game mechanism, then its a SG choice to perhaps disallow it.

[ndkid]

@APSmith

Before your Warping Score gets to 5, you can enter Twilight with only a very low risk of being AWOL for more than a day. On average, you can undergo 10 Twilights before accumulating 75 Warping Points (score of 5). Without spending Cnf, 6 would typically be good, 4 bad. Spending 1 Cnf, typically 8 are good and 2 bad. Spending 2 Cnf (or 1 Cnf + Enigmatic Wisdom 3), typically 9 are good and 1 bad.

So, without spending confidence, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 15XP of positives? And, assuming you can come up with 10 confidence points, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 45XP of positives? And, assuming you can come up with 20 confidence, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 60XP?

So, unless I'm missing something here, even when someone has a big wad of confidence, they can, on average, only manage to trade off every future twilight experience carrying the non-trivial chance of long-term time loss for the value of something weaker than taking the Skilled Parens virtue?

I'm underwhelmed by this particular piece of power-gaming, except by self-confident Criamon. (And, in their case, it's not very out-of-character to be warping right and left, so I don't mind it too much.)

[APSmith]

@ndkid

So, without spending confidence, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 15XP of positives? And, assuming you can come up with 10 confidence points, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 45XP of positives? And, assuming you can come up with 20 confidence, you can exchange a warping score of 5 for an average of 60XP?

In addition to gaining a cool Twilight Scar and the Warping Points, a good Twilight experience gives you one of the following:

• Extra XP (note that your numbers are off by a factor of two; the amount of XP awarded is equal to twice the number of Warping Points gained)

• A new spell, which may potentially be of high magnitude

• A new mystical Virtue (Minor or Major)

The XP gain is arguably the weakest of the three... The effect is chosen by the SG, but I think one would be pretty disappointed if he/she always gave XP, and never a spell or Virtue...

[Vespasian]

I remember playing in a saga where you lost nothing (no XPs, spells nor 'gained' flaws) from bad twilight experiences.
It was deemed that the accumulated warping was bad enough.

mind you, one guy did have Twilight Prone so he had real trouble