It is not a sure thing, since the modifier is capped at +9. You also have no chance of botching that first year, since your Botch Pool starts at 0.
While I am still working on the spreadsheet, I am at year 7 so can tell you what will happen the first year. You have a 0% chance of the "No Effect", a 41% chance of having a "Minor Effect" (none permanent, modifier change result does not matter since modifier is currently capped), 10% chance of "Expand Aura Size", 43.1% chance of "Permanent +1", and 5.9% chance of a double roll.
You end up with a roughly 46.05% for Aura +1 and 1.42% for Aura +2. As long as you conduct magical activity and cast as least one ritual (needing 3+ p of Vis) every year, that ratio will hold true for on average the first 6 years. On average at that point your Aura would be ~3 (2.9328), you would have a 46.86% chance to have gotten at least one size growth, and your chance of botching (which creates a Regio) will be rapidly growing every year. The aura goes up by on average 0.4888 each of those first 6 years.
After the first 6 years your chance of getting an increase begins to rapidly drop. In year 7 it drops over 11%. Eventually the Aura will stabilize at 4, with a small chance per year to grow to 5.
The ritual to expand the aura (from TMRE) is high level and would create a new Tether (which is already capped at 5, I figured something like this in my math above). You would want something like this to cause the aura to spread over as much of the island as possible, rather than being focused just around the middle where the towers are.
The thing you really have to take into account is that all of that magic activity will set off a chain of events which will cause the Botch Pool to grow yearly for the first few decades. So the chance of a botch happening and a Regio forming is fairly high, somewhere in the mid 40s % of happening during the first two decades.
So the thing would be to decide when play begins. If it happens the first year, then there is no aura. If it happens in year 7, then the aura is 3. If it happens in year twenty, then the aura is most likely 4 and there is a fairly high chance of a Regio. If it happens in year one hundred, then the aura is most likely 5 and there is almost assuredly a Regio.
EDIT: I just noticed that you shifted the towers so they are spread out all around the island. Unless you are using enough rituals to get a Preternatural rating of 5 at each, that will greatly slow down the growth of the aura. With only a single at each point, you lose 40% of the chance to increase the aura (it drops into single digit %).