Oh, I really want it to hit $400k. An english version of Finis Terrae, with the original artwork? Yes please, can I have it in hard cover!
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As someone who has written an amount of material for Sub Rosa, supplementary fan material outside of the published content, this tells me that interest is strong in the game. The numbers are bigger than I might have predicted and that can't just be down to nostalgia purchases.
For those now considering crowd-funding brand new content based on the open license, there's a high water mark forming across this campaign to show how many potential customers there are for that brand new content. I'm not going to make any guesses on the economics of those future projects, how many backers would be needed at what level, but it has to be encouraging.
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I am also doing this maths. And if you price (as I do) on a little thing paying off after selling ~100 copies, then its pretty encouraging.
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For those who find sales info useful, the three issues of PERIPHERAL CODE, my old Ars fanzine, have sold 150-200 copies each on DriveThruRPG.
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It's also worth noting that Finis Terrae (the Iberian Tribunal book by Holocubierta) had 322 backers on Kickstarter. I'd expect the final sales numbers to be higher, maybe twice as high? And keep in mind that there are about three times as many speakers of English as of Spanish worldwide.
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300K USD in the first 7 hours or so, with a new backer still joining every 1-3 minutes. Hmm.
These early numbers suggest at least 1 million USD by the end of the 30-day period. Which sounds like a lot - it generally takes D&D or a big name from outside of the rpg world (Lord of the Rings, The last Airbender etc.) to get a 7-figure result. But still... my best guess at this point is more than 1 million and less than 2. Yes. Wow. Truly impressive.
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Pretty hyped for this, have shared with some Facebook groups I frequent.
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The 41 people for Library of Durenmar is impressive.
My budget doesn't stretch that far, however, I acknowledge it is an amazing deal.
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I actually thought about it and I already have all of the 4th and 5th books, plus most of the 3rd and several 2nd books (plus PDFs). Heck I ordered three of them on my last deployment and got them while I was stuck in Afghan.
You are right that it is a great deal and allows someone to get the complete collection in one shot.
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If I could afford the Library of Durenmar, I would have gone for it.
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There are currently 30 Durenmaer + 12 Founders, each 1,220$ in. That's far above may capability - I can barely afford the 150$+shipping magus package.
There are currently 2469 backers for 405,502$ in total, which means on average a backer committed to 164$. More than the 150$ magus package. This could be due to add-ons, but I suspect the Durenmar package also increases the average.
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At 24h after launch, we're at 417042$. It is my understanding that most crowdfunding projects earn 20-30% of their total within 24h. I suspect ArMD to be towards the higher end there, as it's a remastered deluxe edition rather than a brand new thing. If this is true, the projected total would be 1.4M. Of course there is a lot of variance, so yeah, anything from 1M to 2M will not surprise me.
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If i had the money... however I have backed because Becky and Lisa both told me i must! When my girlfriend and my wife both agree to help pay for it together you know it means a lot to me. There is never a good time with my finances but this is something I could not miss, though the ladies say they might not let me handle the book as i'll only trash it!
Slightly more important from my perspective is will there be a chance to write more books for 5th? I'm hoping this will be sufficient to justify updated Tribunal books at least? Or will it all be third party?
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Michelle really really really wants to publish a translation of Finis Terrae with the Spanish art, but we don't have anything in the works besides that.
In my dreams I'd be publishing a hundred Ars Magica books and writing half of them myself. But that's not gonna happen. I still want those hundred Ars Magica books and more to exist -- hence the open license.
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So how about you pledge a completely new booklet - even just a short adventure - written entirely by John Nephew as the 1 million USD stretch goal? Digital only, maybe using some existing Ars Magica art (showcasing how the Open License can be leveraged)? I still remember playing The Ghoul of St. Lazare as a kid, with an incredible Storyguide who managed to scare the living daylights out of us from the atmosphere alone.
No I-wish-but-have-no-time excuses!
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Not saying it can't happen that I write such a thing...but I'm not going to make a promise, and I'm DEFINITELY not going to make a promise tied into a crowdfunding campaign.
But it's awfully nice to hear about Ghoul. I remember first running it in the basement of House Rampant.
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One of the basic rules of crowdfunding is "never pledge anything as a stretch goal you don't already have written and in the can when you start". Anything else is a recipe for delay, non-delivery, and backer unhappiness.
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Meh, I think that's a bit too drastic. If it were true, you ought not to pledge art that's not already done, for example.
I do agree you should not pledge anything that a) is too big/complex or b) depends on multiple other people, or even one person that you don't trust 100%, or c) creates dependencies with other stuff (e.g. you promise a certain additional section in a big, physical book). And I do agree that a lot, probably most, of the stretch goals you pledge should be ready when you start the crowdfunding.
But a short adventure - say 16 pages - digital only, with recycled art that's already there, written entirely by yourself (when you are a game designer of long experience and you almost certainly have many ideas in your proverbial drawer), as one of the "late" stretch goals, making it clear that delivery might take up to 9-12 months? I think that would be reasonable. Also, having late stretch goals that feel really a "stretch" does lend to a crowdfunding campaign a more authentic feel - something that today is becoming ever rarer.
Though I do understand that someone might still say "I don't feel like risking it anyway". At the same time I don't see tossing the idea as proposing a necessarily bad course of action. That said, at this time only one of the visible stretch goals is still locked. We need more 
Ohhh!!!
$525,001 • Memorials Page
We'll add a page to the Definitive core rulebook in memory of our fallen sodales.
Spanning nearly 40 years, Ars Magica is an intergenerational game that has sparked long-lasting communities across the globe. The comments on this campaign are filled with memories of loved ones gone to Final Twilight, for whom Ars Magica was a signifiant part of their lives. Our backers will have the chance to send us the name of an Ars Magica player who they've lost, to be immortalized in the Definitive Edition core rulebook. Valete sodales.
Now this is a truly brilliant stretch goal.
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I'm a non-Spanish speaker who backed FT, so.. the numbers may be squishy at the edges.
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