Reserved for Current Economic Model
Current model: savings due to character abilities only, no infrastructure
I'm going to start this proposal off based on the trees Tartessos grew in 1220, using the Acorn to Oak item. It has 1 use/day, therefore 91 trees/bushes/etc may have been grown. For simplicity I rounded it down to 90. I chose varietals that are native to Malta and freely available, so seeds or seedlings should be readily available. I made several assumptions in building this model and am grateful for any input other players or Silveroak may have to modify it.
The champion of this model is the Date Palm, ubiquitous in the southern Mediterranean and for this model produces fruit (Dates- standard foodstuff, 10MP/T), sap split between Palm Wine (Shoddy Wine- 5 MP/T) and Sugar/Molasses (Standard Spices- 10MP/T), and Wood (Shoddy Fuel- 1MP/T). Each tree produces all three, so my 50 trees are actually counted three times in the table below. Olives, Pomegranates, and Almonds add variety to our diet and will be left to grow; the Date Palms will be replaced each year.
[table][tr][td]Tree Type[/td] [td]# planted[/td] [td]yield/tree[/td] [td]yield in tons[/td] [td]price per ton/tun (C&G)[/td] [td]total MP produced[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dates[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]225 lbs[/td] [td]5.625T[/td] [td]10MP/T[/td] [td]56.25MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Palm Wine[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]47Gallons[/td] [td]4.89T[/td] [td]5MP/T[/td] [td]24.45MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Sugar/Molasses[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]56.5 lbs[/td] [td].705T[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]35.25MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Almond[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]9lbs[/td] [td]0.225T[/td] [td]10MP/T[/td] [td].225MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Pomegranate[/td] [td]25[/td] [td]40lbs[/td] [td].5T[/td] [td]10MP/T[/td] [td]5MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Olives[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]66lbs[/td] [td].165T[/td] [td]10MP/T[/td][td]1.65MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Olive Oil[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]9.5lbs[/td] [td].023[/td] [td]10MP/T[/td] [td].23MP[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Wood Fuel[/td] [td]50[/td] [td]782lbs[/td] [td]19.55T[/td] [td]1MP/T[/td] [td]19.55MP[/td][/tr][/table]
Total possible Provisions total: 87.805
Total possible Consumables Savings: 19.55 MP (As this is wood fuel, some could be used for light or fuel in the Laboratory category)
A few notes: Tartessos got a bit of a late start in planting his year; there should be some sort of negative adjustment to take that into account (half income 1220?)
These numbers are far in excess of the amount we can actually use, therefore we should trade excess for what we are short on. One such possibility would be the Sheikâs men who herd sheep nearby. They indicated they had large quantities of excess wool, and presumably also have excess meat and skins (for vellum). Presumably as herders they are short on Pomegranates, Palm Wine, Sugar, Almonds and Olive products. Because we want them as friends, we should offer a good deal, perhaps even a 2 for one exchange.
As these products are common in Malta, to realize any income from excess, we should set up trade with the mainland (both Europe and Africa) ASAP, but we should prepare our ship and crew to fend off piracy.
Thoughts?
Edit: can anyone figure out why the last column of the table is wrapping to the next line?
Your yield per tree seems a bit high. Where did you get those figures from?
For example according to wikkipedia a female date tree will yield between 100 and 300 pounds of fruit per year, after growing for 4-8 years and produce harvests for 7-10 years, which means that half the trees being female will produce an average of 200 lbs of dates a year/tree during the mature period which is roughly 60% of their lifespan, leading to an overall average output of 60 lbs/year per tree, for 3000 lbs or 1.5 tons and a savings of 15 MP from the date trees, whether savings or income.
Any thoughts of having citrus trees? I'm not sure of their yields, but I know that they were cultivated in Malta.
Wikipedia was a primary source, plus other google search returns, mostly searching "(fruit name) + yield per tree". This was the entry on the Date Palm I was following:
Date palms can take 4 to 8 years after planting before they will bear fruit, and produce viable yields for commercial harvest between 7 to 10 years. Mature date palms can produce 68 to 176 kilograms (150[15] to 300[16] lb) of dates per harvest season, although they do not all ripen at the same time so several harvests are required. In order to get fruit of marketable quality, the bunches of dates must be thinned and bagged or covered before ripening so that the remaining fruits grow larger and are protected from weather and pests such as birds.
I averaged the 150-300 lbs to obtain the 225 lb number I used. The idea for the palms, at least, is to grow them to maturity each year and harvest fruit and sap, then cut down for wood. The primary reason for this is that trees are generally only tapped every five years, therefore growing/cutting each year accelerates this yield.
The wood fuel was the only tough number to find. I was able to find the average height, circumference and density of Date Palm, and did a little math to end up with the pounds per tree figure.
I am not emotionally attached to any of these numbers, we can adjust as you see fit until we come to a consensus; this is just a starting point.
Trogdor - yes on citrus, Tartessos just hasn't planted any yet. Plenty more to come in future years.
We might also consider leaving the trees there and omitting the firewood option. Granted that leaves a lot of 'fallow' trees. But after five years of this, we have a sustainable crop that doesn't require any magical interference. Basically, the magic gives us a boost, but isn't the primary focus of the crop.
That would allow us to continue to expand the orchards as well at the end of the five years.
This would be fine, although our expansion options are limited only by our ability to harvest and use the product. 1220 is likely a write off anyways. Using Silveroaks numbers for dates, and only tapping 20% each year, our numbers become:
Dates: 15Mp
Date Wine: 4.89 MP
Sugar/Molasses: 7.05 MP
Wood Fuel: 0
The remaining agriculture adds a total of 7.105 MP
Total savings using this model is 34.045 MP, all in provisions.
If we need more, we just plant more.
my numbers didn't take into account the acorn to oak enchanted item, which a servant can easily move tree to tree and 'accelerate' 2/day.
my source had a lower end of 100 instead of 150, the only other issue is gender, since only half the trees yield fruit. That gives dates 5000 lbs/yr of dates or 25 lbs/yr of silver.
I'll run a quick double check on the rest of these...
palm wine will require recruiting a brewer...
I do not see a tree that produces sugar... unless we are talking the white sap from palm trees or maple syrup, but the climate does not seem conducive to maple
On the other hand there is a local variety or olive tree which grows about 1 ton of olives per year- the typical downside being its time to reach maturity - about 12 years. The lifespan for the tree as an adult is over a millennia.
Olive oil production will require a skilled miller/pressor
Currently the idea is to spontaneously rego craft the processing until we can get a grog or magic item. That should take care of brewing, pressing, curing, etc. At least for this year.
The sugar and molasses comes from the Date Palm, it is called Jaggery or Palm Sugar and is used as raw sugar or fermented into the Palm wine, known locally by many different names (Lagbi is probably the one used on or near Malta). While it is technically brewed, the process is simple - leave it out for a few hours or days, bottle and drink.
One thing I am realizing is that our agricultural yield will be far in excess of what we need, so we likely do not need to engage in this level of detail (unless you want to. I actually enjoyed researching this). We could instead abstract it to offset our provisions cost, and excess could be traded, using our ship. This year this would require some rego craft rolls (to ensure no botch), but once we have either grogs or magic items should become pretty much automatic each year.
So, troupe, what else do we want to grow?
Artichokes
Peaches
Figs
Acorns
Timber
Resin
herbs
spices
carob
jams/jellies
dye
Tartessos wants to grow truffles, inspired by the ones brought back by Talus and Paphos. the Mythic paradigm for this, I believe, is spontaneous generation. Could he adapt the vermin spell guidelines from Animal to apply to Herbam for this?
TTTIIIIIMMMBBBBEEERRRR!!!!!!!
I just wanted to say that. Spontaneous generation spells would be nice. Frogs are full of protein right?
Spices are generally relatively valuable pound-for-pound, though I'm not sure what will grow in Malta. Beyond that, whatever else is most valuable and easily maintained.
Considering a peasant or servant with this magic item and a bag of appropriate seeds can grow 730 trees to maturity in a year, I am thinking that this should simply be calculated as a source of income rather than savings on provisions- at least in the long run. The maximum size of the orchard grown in this way varies based on the species of tree and the land being set aside for usage, and in the long run you will probably want this to be worked by peasants rather than by ReHe spells (unless you want to enchant these and reduce the workforce requirements significantly)
In terms of overall economics I think the biggest hole in the plans is that while you do have a ship you do not have a merchant to use it for trade.
Looking into this further, there is more required in having lives than growing the tree and harvesting, however once an orchid of this type gets started recruiting peasants from the nomadic herders will not be a problem- someone will likely even apply to run a mill and press in your city if you don't directly invest.
Aside from getting into details My inclination is to treat this as a story issue for buying off a hook rather than a straight math problem- given that a single acre can theoretically produce 48 tons of olives I think setting aside 2 acres should suffice (9680 sq paces) for a very long term development. Essentially the peasants will get a portion of the olives in exchange for maintaining the orchard and harvesting the fruit.
Notably the primary costs for growing olives are time to maturity (12-50 years) and water... both of which the covenant has resources to boost. I'm thinking the best approach is to consider the olive growing and trade to be a 2 income system, which requires buying off the broke hook through stories (for example, establishing a volume buyer for the olives and finding the merchant to run the trade). Once that is done they will be established at 40lbs of silver a year apiece, and from there may grow naturally according to the rules in covenants, with the ongoing magical contributions of the acorn to oak enchantment and the plentiful fresh water resources giving a significant bonus to the variations in income from olives.
Tayma might be able to pull off a merchant roll until we find someone better. Just coast on her stats.
I'm not so sure about Tayma as a merchant. She has no skill in Bargain; she's disfigured (-3 to all rolls that involve good looks and gaining respect from people); and she's infamous (level 4 bad reputation). That doesn't seem a good combination for a merchant.
Really, David the Redcap is the best potential merchant we have. He has Bargain 4 and several Merchant Lores.