Hmm, IIRC the modified longevity ritual that allowed limited fertility was for four days a year (solistices and equinoxes) and the ritual had the same efficay as the default version. It was only said that it was possibly liable to have unspecified mild "side effects" (i.e. handwave to GM for using as a plot hook as they saw fit, or not).
There was another modified version, which exchanged slightly reduced efficacy in couteracting aging effects, in exchange for counteracting the cosmetic, apparent aging (the "Hollywood" longevity ritual).
I fully expect both versions to resurface in some future supplement (e.g. the third Houses book, or somesuch). After all, they are both very minor modifications of standard Hermetic practice, not even worth a Minor Breakthrough.
As for the "barely fertile" longevity ritual, I'd make it allow fertility on eight days a year:
Samhain (Oct 31st)
Winter Solstice (Dec 21st)
Imbolc (Feb 2nd)
Spring Equinox (March 21st)
Beltane (April 30th)
Summer Solstice (June 21st)
Lammas (August 1st)
Autumn Equinox (September 21st)
The eight universal pagan "days of power" for the Magic Realm and the Faerie Realm, when their power swells and floods the Earth.
As for the main topic, well we know from several passages in the books, that Hermetic magi having Gifted Children or the latter being conceived at Covenants is surely not an exceedingly rare occurrence, even if far from being the main source of apprentices (the latter, I'd mainly tribute to the longevity ritual, and many antisocial "lab rats" or mabitious, study- and adventure-engrossed magi not even acknowledging a desire for offspring until their fertile days have passed).
Very tentatively, I'd rate the likelihood of a Gifted children being conceived so:
1% basic percentage
+5% for every point of Magic or Faerie Aura where the child is conceived.
+25% if a parent is Gifted, a Faerie, or a magical or faerie creature who can breed with humanity (for each parent).
+1% if a parent has a minor magic- or faerie-based Supernatural Virtue, for every virtue.
+2% if a parent has a major magic- or faerie-based Supernatural Virtue, for every virtue.
-1% for every point of Divine Aura where the child is conceived (this may not cause the percentage to drop below 1%).
Magic and Faerie realms are made to work at the same level of efficacy since humans (including the Gifted) cannot normally conceive a faerie (at most it will be a human with Strong Faerie Blood). Infusion of faerie power in a child will typically result in enhancing his or her magical potential (in addition to creating the potential for faerie-based Supernatural Virtues).
Infernal Auras are a tricky case: the demonic realm is generally hostile to magic, and to fertility. However, folklore reports several cases of babies with demonic heritage or conceived in places of dark power having exceptional magical aptitude (typically as part of some diabolical plot). Therefore, when the conceiving has the "blessing" of resident or high-ranking demons, Infernal Auras, and the parent being a diabolist or a infernal creature interfetile with humans, may work just like Magic ones.