I have found the definitive answer within the RAW."Something, the connection, is an Arcane Connection to something else, the target, if the connection was very closely associated with the target, often by being a part of it. Once the connection is removed from the target, the connection starts to fade..." (AM p 84)Therefore, unless you have an Arcane Connection to the bandit, he clearly suffers no warping, as he cannot be "the target" unless there is an AC (the connection) to him. You don't have to use the AC, but until you have it, he is simply not a target as defined by the RAW.
You're not going to convince anyone by quoting the rules, because altho' they may seem to be perfectly clear in one instance, in the next they contradict themselves in the usage of the word "target", and at no point do they make an effort to, specifically, define the use of the word "target". It all has to be taken in context - and that will vary based on opinion. Accept it.
On page 111, the first sentence under "Ranges" seems to strongly support the "bandit = target" theory. "The range of a spell is the distance to the nearest part of the target of the spell..."But "seems to strongly support" is not the same as "proves" or "defines". What is the "target of the spell"? Because the very next two sentences contradict that assumption..."Thus, the caster... can cast a Target: Room Corpus spell on the people in the room... The target of the spell is the room,..."So, the "target" is not always the thing that is listed as the target. Great.
And there's "Targets and Creo" (p 115) - which is pretty damn clear."The target of a Creo spell that actually creates something is the thing created..."Did the CrAu Lightning Bolt spell create the bandit? No? Hrmmm... then "the target" is... yeah.
And what about that next section, "Targets and Sizes" (p 115.)"Every Form has a base size for Individual Targets..."And, if we look at Aurum, we find..."Some target categories for Aurum require some clarification...
Individual: A single phenomon: one cloud, one wind, [color=red]one bolt of lightning. (AM p 125)Hmmm... So... where does a bandit fit into those? And how is the bolt, itself, not the target, when it specifically says (here) that is is?
Or is the target both the bolt and the bandit, but in different senses of the word?
The rules both support and deny both interpretations, warping and no warping. You can go in circles as much as you want, just don't pretend that there is any definitive "proof" one way or the other.* Either one is fine.
Say it with me: YOUR SAGA MAY VARY!
(* Until/unless the authors speak up. But I'm thinkin' they're too wise for that.)
(Personally, and despite all the above to the contrary, I would rule that, generally speaking, a strong combat spell like that does warp. Otherwise, mostly only Corpus and Mentem spells would cause warping. That's not anywhere in the rules, it's just simple meta-game logic - and it's the most convincing argument I can think of.)