Odds of Success

Does anyone know where I might find calculated odds of success against the Ease Factors most commonly used in ArM? Even better if it includes a matrix referencing different skill levels vs. each EF.

roll percent
0 100
1 90
2 90
3 80
4 70
5 59
6 49
7 38
8 28
9 16.9
10 6.9
11 5.9
12 5.9
13 4.8
14 4.8
15 3.8
16 3.8
17 2.69
18 2.69
19 1.69
20 1.69
21 0.59
8 Likes

it does obviously depend on whether you are using a simple or stress die...

Yes. But the probability distribution of the simple die is very... well, simple.

3 Likes

@Tugdual, will your table work as a "sliding scale" to incorporate Characteristics and Skills?

If, for example, a grog with +1 Perc and 5 skill in shotgun is fighting a vampire in our saga with light conditions that give him an Ease Factor of 12 for the shot, would I "slide" these percentages so that 6 is now 100%, making 12 a 49% probability of success? (Wait, make that 8 at 100%, our HR long guns are +2 on Attack).

Yes, that's the raw stress dice roll.
With an EF 12 and a 5+1+2 for a HR long gun, that leaves 4 points for the dice roll for 70% success.

OTOH, 100% success assumes a roll of zero is not a botch.

So I grokked how the table worked but botched Remember Stress Die Rules:)

Thanks for the table and clarification.