Old valuable grog

So we are playing a very young covenant, we actually founded it just a year after character creation. I just lead a season long expedition to the south on a people gathering mission. The mission was about half as successful as we would have liked. The one important grog we did aquire was a very old (60-65) councilor. Now I really need this guy for my magus's social skills (gentle gift) as at character creation I did not have the points to really be socially proficient, and the objective in getting this guy was to solve that problem. I am also a bit of a aging ritual specialist and right now I can get a lab total of 40 without spending extra vis, I will be able to do much better later when our creo book comes in (right now it is at 7).

The question is is it worth it to pop an aging ritual on this guy right now? The problem is is that I don't know his stats and next season is winter, so he could just hit a crisis and die on us negating a season of play that took an entire session, as all else we definetly got in that session was a mediocre book (though one we didn't otherwise have) and a couple of apprentices for a couple of grogs. One issue is that while there are 5 of us I'm the only one who wants to consider hitting him with an aging ritual so I would be paying the full price. I have enough vis (just).

What do you guys think?

The issue is moot unless your magic theory is 7. The initial LR is governed by the seasonal Vis limit.

Note that a little spontaneous Intellego Corpus should be able to give your magus fairly accurate knowledge of the physical condition of this person. While your magus does not think in terms of "Stamina -1" or "2 decrepitude points", he should be able to gain the equivalent information (which gets represented to you, as a player, through those numbers).

The base effect should probably be level 5: Sense a specific piece of information about a body. This should give you, as a player, all the mechanical information necessary to gauge the probability that the old grog dies of old age: his physical age, decrepitude score, stamina, and relevant Virtues/Flaws. This would be a slight variation on "Revealed Flaws of Mortal Flesh", InCo 10 (Base 5, +1 Touch) from the corebook, which detects all medical defects of your target.