I did some calculations using infinite series YR7, here's my final post in a thread, but you may find the whole thread informative. My final result was P(Discovery) ~ 0.585
https://forum.atlas-games.com/t/revised-calculations-for-original-research/5738/43
I was actually thinking about doing something like this. My intuitive thought was magnitude 2 effects would be the most beneficial for a trade off between warping and speed.