stressful spontaneous magic - twilight trap?

I've figured out a lot of hard and fast ules for a long-term covenant simulation, but one point is bugging me.

How many twilight points do magi gain, how many twilights do they live through.

The RAW state there are 2 warping points per year. (p. 32) for a "typical" magus. In Magi of Hermes, some magi have a lower score. Hugh at 15pg has got 2 warping points per year, whether he has got a longevity ritual or not.

All of this seems to neglect flaws like twilight prone and virtues like cautious sorcerer (and familiars).

So I try to calculate it anew, assuming that most botches result from spontaneous casting: How often does a magus botch?

How often does a magus cast a spontaneous (stressful) spell?

In a lab season: Once a week in a magic aura?
During an adventure season: twice a day in a dominion 2 aura?

You are trying to do something which is not really doable : abstract adventures and life of magi.

One of the clever things the ArM5 longevity simulation did was to treat different magi as having a different "Reckless" trait, and different chances for Twilight accordingly. I'd suggest you do something similar. I'm not sure what specific guidelines are appropriate, though. Perhaps you should come up with some random distribution for adventures (aura, formulaic spells, spontaneous spells, and coming under the influence of powerful effects) and downtime (chance of experimentation, risk) for each magus? You only have 6, after all; it might be doable.

Thank you YR7. I found it on the Interent. An amazing piece of work!
Although I do not concur with all details of the simulation, this gives me enough statistics to come up with a convincing and easy simulation of twilights.

You may already be taking this into account but I didn't see it in your discussion, what matters for twilight episodes is not how often the magus/maga casts a stressful spell but how often they cast a stressful spell with more than one botch die.

A magus who has a familiar (and therefore a golden cord) I would expect not to cast a spell with more than one botch die ever when not adventuring and even when they are adventuring there's there's good odds of them not casting spell with more than one stress die unless they're in a foreign aura.

I think that if you're going to make a simulation you'll want to make the equations for the accumulation of warping (primarily do to botches with one stress die), and for twilight episodes (based on adventures in foreign auras) not particularly closely related.