Warping Gain vs Decrepitude Gain

Games Discussion Ars Magica
1

The purpose of this post is to calculate what would happen first to a magus/maga living an area of Aura 5 or less (majority), with a longevity ritual that has a modifier of -10, living mod -2, on said person as of 35 years and on. Assuming no excess Warping through being affected by a 7th magnitude or higher spell not meant for him, or botching spells, would said Magus hit Warping 10 or Decrepitude 5 first?

Base on that baseline, we can figure out how other methods of warping gain can affect his/her life.

Aging roll:
[ stress die (no botch) + age ] - [Longevity Ritual Modifier + living conditions modifier]

Age 35 - 40 (6 rolls)
(1d10 + 4) - 12
Age 41 to 50 (10 rolls)
(1d10 + 5) - 12
Age 51 to 60 (10 rolls)
(1d10 + 6) - 12
And so on... arriving at:

66 rolls to hit 100 years of age.
86 rolls to hit 150 years of age.
136 rolls to hit 200 years of age.

Score Requirements:
5 15 30 50 75 105 140 180 225 275

At the very minimum, if you somehow never fail an aging roll by more than 9 ( I think it was "less than 9" was the cut off for no aging point/decrepitude right?), and never get any warping other than your longevity ritual, you'd pass into final twilight at 310 years of age.

Lets take a more realistic number, lets say due to whatever reasons, that on average you gain 2 warping points a year (which is the average indicated by the book, but a bit more than you'd get in play, especially when you skip 5 years or a decade to study for example)...

Final Twilight is entered at approximately 155 years of age. Now remember, we are assuming no failed rolls, no failed twilight comprehension rolls, no failed aging rolls (or I'd guess you'd call those amazingly successful aging rolls!)

So who's got a nice system to calculate gaining 2 warping points a year vs 91 aging rolls ... to figure out what is more likely to happen first, when using a powerful longevity ritual? (Lab total 50, -10, -12 with living conditions)?

At first glance, one would think you'd need to fail 75 aging rolls by 10 or more to get a decrepitude point, which would make it rather rare... but then you gotta account for that dreaded "13" and the 10% chance to roll a 1 on that stress die, as well as those high rolls that will simply add one to your Decrepitude Score.. anyone run this sort of calculation before?

2

Just a few comments :

Magi take no warping from living in high auras (ArM5 p.168, third paragraph), so you can skip that requirement.

Just because a magus reaches Warping Score 10 does not mean he enters Twilight. And even if he does, he still has a chance to comprehend it well enough to come out of the experience.

Sorry I can't help you with the rolls, though.

3

No prob, but at twilight 10, the comprehension time is "infinite" right so they're not really coming out :stuck_out_tongue:

4

Well, if he succeed well enough at his comprehension roll, says beat it by one, he only spends seven + 1 stress die in twilight.

I wonder if he still has to roll for Aging during these years :slight_smile:

5

With a total modifier of +-0, for each 10 years you will on average get +8 years apparent age and 1 aging point.

With a -12 total modification your first aging point is likely to come at age 110-119(this is minimum though as i use a straight 5 as the expected outcome together with the 1(assuming each number getting rolled once per decade)).
At 120-129 you get +9 y. app. age and +2 aging points.
At 130-139 you get +9 y. app. age and +3 aging points.
At 140-149 you get +10 y. app. age and +3 aging points +sufficient in any to advance decrepitude by 1 and crisis once.
Repeat last and add an aging point more per decade up until reaching 230-239 whereafter you add the "+sufficient in any to advance decrepitude by 1 and crisis once" twice per decade instead. Of course, you WONT reach that far because the magi will be dead far sooner, around 170-210 depending on luck, because of the "13" results.

6

No.

Magi do not enter Twilight based only on their Twilight Score. Read the section after that table.

Basically, first, the mage has to botch. Then, that botch has to result in 2 or more Warping Points (or suffer some other effect that has the same result). Then, only if the Comprehension roll fails or ties does that default time kick in.

7

A very comprehensive evaluation of this was done a little while back. I don't remember if it was here or on the mailing list. I bet it can be found with a search.

Chris

8

Getting hit with a high magnitude spell is probably more likely (as a mechanism to need to test for twilight?).

9

Well, you need 2 warping points... so normally, if you are only hit by 1 high magnitude spell, with 1 warping point, you're safe.

10

durenmar.de/aging/

11

You guys rock. Also, thanks, yeah it totally escaped my mind that the mage has to ENTER twilight in the first place even at a Warping Score of 10.

12

Oh yeah. My bad. I was imagining (for some reason) that you got a number of warping points somehow related to the magnitude. Which is bollocks, obviously.