I'm curious as to how the order might have changed had it never lost the 13th house? Also with Christianity on the rise and the pagan faith starting to dwindle what place would the diedne have in the 13th century?
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Starting to dwindle? The various pagan faiths were rapidly losing ground to Christianity already at the time the Order was founded, and by the time the Schism war happened there were very few pagans left in Mythic Europe.
But to answer the question - the Order would probably no longer exist.
There was a period of massive unrest and distrust in the Order leading up to the Schism War, and things were pretty much set for a collapse of order and the Order.
Being able to focus on a common enemy (the Diedne) was probably what saved the Order, and after the Schism War everybody had seen more than enough fighting and killing and were quite happy to settle down peacefully.
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What having House Diedne still around would mean depends almost entirely on what House Diedne was actually like. And, well, as it was an explicit part of the game line's Style Guide for authors that the books would not make any authoritative statements on whether or not the Schism War was justified, there is quite deliberately not enough canon to say what the Diedne were "really" like.
So, in order to answer your question, one first has to define the Diedne.
Well. I note that the religion of the druids was an oral tradition, and House Diedne at the time of the Schism War was separated from the original practice of that religion by four disasters and almost a thousand years. There was the Roman conquest of Britain, and subsequent effort at suppressing the druids, in the 1st century AD. Then there was the Christianization of the Roman Empire in the 4th century, along with subsequent efforts to suppress all paganism. Then there was the flight of the Britons from the Anglo-Saxon conquest in the 6th century to settle Armorica (afterward known as Brittany). And finally there was the formation of the Order of Hermes and House Diedne itself in the 9th century -- per p.9 of the core, she was "a woman cast out from that religion" but her House "soon came to dominate [that religion] completely." (A process that included Diedne slaughtering vast numbers of Irish druids, per the Hibernian Tribunal book.)
A religion dependent on the oral transmission of its traditions, having undergone four major catastrophes that would disrupt the transmission of those traditions in eight centuries? When demons of the order of False Gods show up calling themselves Esus, Taranis, and Teutates, and explain to these priests that they're supposed to be sacrificing humans by the three methods detailed in Lucian's Pharsalia, what are they going to do? Use Intellego on the demons to verify they're telling the truth?
Yep, the secretive House Diedne, leading the shattered remnants of a religion that has no (or almost no) adherents left other than the House and the covenfolk at House covenants, was remarkably fertile ground for the birth of a Misguided Tradition (as defined in RoP:Infernal, p.127), which at its higher layers became fully Corrupt.
When that corruption was left to fester by the Order of Hermes, well, it was inevitable that Pope Urban II would have to organize a "Crusade" against the organization of diabolist wizards. Unfortunately, the destruction of the Order left Christendom vulnerable to Muslim armies backed by members of the Suhhar Sulayman, as the current (in 1220 AD) fighting in Italy to try to reclaim Rome shows.
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"What if the Schism war never happened" is one of those "What if Rome never rose" sort of sweeping alt-histories that it's hard to really answer, given the number of moving factors. I do think it's a fun question though, no matter how it lands.
One thing that I think happens to the Order (or whatever is left of it) is a change in the focus of the magic. What we know of Diedne Magic comes to us from the Virtue/Flaw in core, is a focus on Spontaneous magic. I view this as diametrically opposed to the careful, studious magic of Bonisagus, and the order as a whole. Assuming 200 years of evolution, and perhaps the secrets behind this magic either leaking out into other houses (assuming a relative balance as is) or being added to other house's magics (assuming a steady takeover by Diedne) would lead to a greater capacity of the Order to BE spontaneous, rather than cautious and ceremonial. This might lead to more discoveries, but also more botches.
More spontaneous magic means a relative increase in botches, possibly significant botches, and in uncontrolled places as opposed to a remote-but-stable Hermetic lab. We might see more Weird And Dangerous Magic in pockets of the world that had grown used to not having to deal with such things, increasing tension between mages and the rest of the world. You might see mages who might otherwise be reducing tension between Diedne and the rest of the world too preoccupied putting out metaphorical and literal fires to do the hard work of peacekeeping.
This is compounded by the theoretical but possibility inevitable integration of Folk Witch Magic, with its capacity to restore Fatigue. Given that fatigue is the limiting factor, if this capacity was discovered by House Diedne, every Folk Witch in Europe would find themselves at the extreme ends of "Join or Die." If this secret was able to be integrated (or, for that matter, subjugated), it would allow the house (and any practioners) something like half-again as much power as they had before.
This would, I imagine, lead to a "Why shouldn't we have magocracy, exactly?" scenario in some region (Iberia, or the British Isles, or Novogrod, etc.), as the "gloves off" approach comes to fruition. I do think this would be short lived/fragile, as a concerted group could manufacture armaments to handle the powerful-but-unmoored mages running around their new domain. How fast this falls would depend on who joins up. I could see groups of Merinita and Bjornaer being persuaded to join in, especially if there was "retaking the land from the Christians" propaganda, and some Tremere relishing the idea of becoming boyars of their own little swathes of here-or-there. Depending on how they framed it, they might even bring some of Bonisagus on board, suggesting that having unimpeded potential for discovery would be possible at last in a fully magocratic land.
Assuming (again, not strictly canon) that House Diedne would pursue the pogroms of their founder on non-House rivals and hedge mages, we might see quite a few of those traditions either wiped out or strongly militarized, perhaps even uniting against a common threat. Depending on where the Diedne Magocracy was based, this could lead to a East/West or North/South split, the Diedne Magogracy being hemmed in on all sides, or the inability of the various hedge traditions to present a united front, and being picked off one by one.
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That the old pagan faiths were losing ground is an interesting thing - it seems to me that in a setting where some of the gods are very explicitly real, you can talk to them, they have stats, the inevitability of pagan holdouts, perhaps more devoted if more insular, would happen in pockets here and there. I think you're right that a Diedne revival would seem like a buffet from a Misguided Tradition, but might it also seem like an opportunity to a bunch of Faeries and other Real Gods who see the changes brought about by House Diedne's ascension as a potential to reclaim woodlands and wild places lost to The Dominion? Would they (perhaps with House Merinita's influence) seek to establish new cult centers, offering Vis and mutual protection, support, and secrets?
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The simplest path to keeping a House Diedne in the modern Order with the least disruption to its history would be for House Guernicus to have chosen a different scapegoat to throw to the wolves of the Order in an effort to maintain any cohesion. House Bjornaer would have been the logical alternative -- also somewhat pagan, also suspected of diabolic ties through Birna's original tradition.
Bjornaer magi are very good at hiding out to conduct guerilla warfare, though. So, that would probably lead to ongoing conflict in the Rhine Tribunal and edges of the Order like Novgorod. Diedne strongholds would have been through the Normandy, Provencal, & Iberia regions; Tytalus would probably not reign supreme in Brittany, and the Diedne magi would likely have been more proactive about the squeeze on vis sources in those areas.
With House Diedne still in the Order, would the Pralix's followers have stayed as House Ex Miscellanea? Diedne was hostile to the druids that were the core of Pralix's followers. More extended simmering conflict between Ex Misc & Diedne might create a cold war situation with Stonehenge, Loch Leglain, & Hiberian. Who also have much more vis sources than the regions where House Diedne is situated...
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One major question is in the alternate history where Diedne was not cast out whether mundane history remains unchanged.
The major issue is that Tremere was pretty committed to wiping out Diedne, so if Diedne survived what happened to Tremere?
Depending on how those two questions are addressed can lead to some widely varying outcomes.
I think, for the purposes of the question, House Tremere can't have been wiped out in their place (or it's just a different Schism War). They may still have come for Diedne, but perhaps in this timeline, Tremere blinked first. Perhaps one of Houses took it upon themselves to be peacekeepers. If so, it might bode well for the order as a whole, if there was someone, perhaps even a whole House of someones, pushing for peace and reconciliation. It seems hard to imagine for the Order, but...sometimes you have to believe such a thing can be possible - how else can it to become.
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I could certainly see Bjornear playing peace-keeper; they realize that (after Diedne) they are the most-likely scapegoats, and want to avoid getting moved up the list or whacked. And there is no guarantee that 'just' eliminating Diedne would sate the xenophobia of the Latin houses.
A reconciliation between Tremere and Diedne seems like a non-starter; both houses are aiming for domination. If the leaders at the time of the Schism were both replaced, then maybe something could be worked out -- with Tremere shifting towards its' more recent 'advance the Order' agenda, and Diedene giving up aggressive expansion for a behind-the-scenes kingmaker role or something. Ex Misc would be a source of tension that would need to be dealt with; no way are they going to just stand down after their suffering at the hands of Diedne in the recent past.
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I think this What-if very much depends on what Diedne were actually like, which, ofc, we don't exactly know, AND a point of divergence from canon events. But I would recommend a read of Sub Rosa Article 13 where they meticulously piece together a picture of House Diedne from every bit of lore that we are given in 5th and previous Editions.
As a rough summary;
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Started from an offshoot Gaulish druid sect, though claimed ancestral ties to Cymru Druids.
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An odd mixture of Societas and a Mystery Cult. House Diedne was a chief recipient of Hedge Wizards before Ex Miscellanea was inducted into the Order. Yet they were very insular, secretive, and well organized. Largest House in the Order by far.
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They were expansionistic, but this was par for the cor in the early days of the Order. It's just that Diedne scrambled to absorb any Druidic tradition, whereas rest of the Order focused on Roman traditions, particularly those descended from the Cult of Mercury.
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The core group of Diedne was renown for their Spontaneous Magic, but their assimilation of various druidic traditions and Hedge Wizards likely broadened their skillset / subgroups (for instance, Melusines, the Breton variant of Sirenes were part of the House at one point). Spirit Magics were apparently uncommon in their House.
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The Diedne were absolutely and unrepentantly Pagan and their usage of Wickerman is stated as a fact, not speculation.
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Whether they were Diabolists is uncertain; Sacrifice is not an inherently Infernal rite in Ars Magica and the accusation mainly came from their age-old enemies. Given the structure of the House, it is unlikely that the entire House was corrupted, if Infernalism was present.
That being said, we may also wish to establish a point of divergence from the Canon events. WHY did Diedne survive in this instance? I am assuming that you are envisioning the Order of Hermes in similar form to what it is in 1220, but with Diedne still around? Or...?
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Were the House Guernicus and Hoplites able to re-establish lawfulness and order before escalation of hostilities? Perhaps by actually getting a chance to conduct their investigations? Perhaps via a more cooperative Diedne Quasitor?
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Did the Tremere never declare war on Diedne at all?
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Did the vote to renounce Diedne fail to pass at the Grand Tribunal?
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Did Diedne enjoy more support from their allies? In canon, the Diedne had a solid relationship with Bonisagi lineage, Houses Guernicus, Merinita and circumstances of the time would have made them natural allies with Bjornaer.
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Did the Order find an alternative common enemy?
Establishing exact point(s) of divergence helps, otherwise there are too many directions where this could go. Perhaps the Order found a new scapegoat in the North and Middle-East respectively, waging war with Vitki and Sahirs respectively.
The Diedne inflicted significant casualties on 3 Houses trying to dogpile them; perhaps with more active allies they could have forced an uneasy ceasefire / peace; the end result of which left the present Order in a fragile, bitter state, yet with no side too keen to repeat the meatgrinder their parens spoke of.
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Aww ...
As a different Schism War, it might have been closer to what happened to House Tytalus, where there was a limited war destroying the strength of House Diedne, and perhaps cutting out it's black heart, and then the Order went on ... perhaps to an even greater and more devastating conflict.
I've been thinking about a "post-Apocalyptic" Ars setting. "Arsageddon"? There was a war within the Order and now, in the aftermath, the PCs aren't certain what happened - who was at fault, who survived, or even who started it. But, like most other magi, they're now in isolated covenant in a newly hostile world. No Tribunals to keep other magi in check ... wherever they are, no Redcap network, and a roused Church actively hunting magi.
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Your first bullet point seems like the cleanest fulcrum. Assuming, as you argue convincingly, that any infernalism was not spread throughout, it could lead to everyone NOT involved in that jettisoning their fellows and "clearing house", such that it reduces Diedne down to a size comparable to the other houses, reducing their threat to the general order (and hence making Tremere et all less nervous).
Can you point to a source for the latter, please? I know it's given as one of the reasons for their Marching, but I thought that by 1220 it wasn't clear to most people that this was proven, or just accused.
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"The Tremere say that this was a
simple matter of principle... but there
was a deeper reason for their loathing of
the Diedne wicker men."
Houses of Hermes: True Lineages,
page 113
This isn't phrased as a conjecture, or speculation.
Sub Rosa points to a 10th century text Commenta Bernensia which references worship of Celtic dietis, 3 of which require different forms of sacrifice. Worship of Taranis in particular involved burning the sacrifices, which would be consistent with the Wicker Man idea.
Yes, it is highly likely they practice human sacrifice, which, yes, was part of the accusations, but as far as I understand it, as a proof of diabolism. It is however not damning evidence, nor illegal in isolation.
I can think of 3 magical traditions with some elements of human sacrifice;
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Cult of Mercury possessed a ritual that called for the sacrifice of the caster. Funnily enough, it is implied I believe that Trianoma herself died performing it.
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Then we have Rituals of Fenicil, the Curse of Thot, quite likely originating from an Egyptian tradition and performed by Guernicus during the Schism...where they sacrificed a Diedne ambassador.
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And then we have the Muspelli who either need a Gifted summoning partner, or to sacrifice an UnGifted practitioner to summon their Patrons. Likewise they can sacrifice beings of might to power their magics.
Lets not forget Faerie Gods are just as likely to accept human sacrifice as the Infernal ones...
If you meant "were they Pagan", True Lineages page 9 certainly refers to Diedne the Founder as Pagan.
Houses of Hermes Societas 10 further mentions how House Diedne actively promoted a non-Christian faith. But again, being Pagan is not a crime in itself.
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I knew Diedne were pagan, and I think it very likely that some Celtic cultures practised human sacrifice. But for me your quote about "wicker men" is a bit oblique to be confirmation of Diedne human sacrifice; but I don't find the idea that unlikely, either.
Thanks for the info.
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There is also the possibility that they had a wickerman ritual that did not involve human sacrifice but was rumored to do so. Kind of like if Qanon started claiming that Burning man involved sacrificing babies.
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Or did not REQUIRE human sacrifice, but a human sacrifice is one of the things you could plug into it and get a result. (Eg, you burn the Wicker Man and the Shape/Material bonuses of whatever was in it are contained in the ash, so if you scatter them on the fields, said fields get +X virility or stamina, etc.
(Source: Gruagach Tattoo Shape Bonuses), ones that would be irrelevant for crops removed:
Bear: +3 Strength
Bull (or perhaps cows): +3 Stamina
Horse: +3 Stamina
Salmon: +4 granting longevity
Stag: +6 virility
I don't know what bonuses one might get from humans, but perhaps a similar boost would be possible, or the ashes would be used for different purposes. (Slathered on weapons to increase their efficaciousness in battle, or as a ritual component to enchant or destroy an enemy)
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Yes, indeed: they could well have burnt a human-shaped wicker figure as a stand-in for a god or human; and maybe it was an actual human sacrifice in the past, but Diedne had long given that practice up, as barbaric, dubious, or likely to upset the neighbours.
As it happens, among my people we have a ritual where a Guy is burnt alive, and another where we consume the flesh of our god. Please don't tell House Tremere about those, they would love to misunderstand.
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Oh, and we are told that House Tremere has a dislike of worship of gods generally, which Diedne were definitely all about. The wicker man ritual could have offended them for lots of reasons.