This is a better question. I would for sure allow a player to spend confidence points on twilight avoidance or Twilight understanding, but not the GM roll nor would I allow it to be spent on the simple die to reduce the warping gain. I also wouldn’t allow the confidence point to be spent on the single die warping points gained if entering twilight, hoping for better insight either. The warping gain is without doubt a single event, as it can send you into Twilight. But there is nothing to conclude from that to say that the simple die is a single action. It can easily be interpreted as representing a whole season’s activities, either spent protecting yourself from possible warping as part of the experimentation process (much like in the experimentation process, you’re protecting yourself from lab disasters but need to roll a dice for the season, which can trigger a disaster which gives you a single event warping sending you into Twilight), or spent understanding the breakthrough so as to reduce the need to rely on warping to finalize your understanding of the breakthrough points. Either interpretation is season long. I can’t think of an alternative explanation of what the wizard is doing to reduce that warping as part of the die roll that can count as a single event performed at the moment of locking up his lab for the season, where he might spend confidence. The alternative explanation I can think that the die roll might represent to reduce warping is blind luck, which will lead us into discussing the Lucky virtue, a discussion you can find elsewhere on this forum if you care about it. It probably wouldn’t fly at my table either.