I've got no qualms.
statistical calculus trumps auras
except faerie auras, they seem to work on quantum mechanics and would drive any statistician mad.
Dunno, but we can delegate it to companions, anyway.
I like this.
Yes.
IMO, this may too high: It means that you'll have about 3 persons for each stat with a stat at 3 or more.
Intelligence, Perception, Com, Pre, Dex, Sta, Str or Qik at 4: 8 people.
Intelligence, Perception, Com, Pre, Dex, Sta, Str or Qik at 3: 16 people.
This means that, out of 60 random, average persons, almost half will have a stat at 3 or 4, and thus be really noticeable for it over time: This is the best "normal human" stat possible (3)*, and a level deserving of at least country-wide contests of beauty/Str/eloquence/whatever (4).
I see this as being totally true of, say, covenant grogs or companions, which are already selected out of a larger population because they're good, not for random peasants.
=> I'd take these numbers not as "Communication level", but as "Com + Good Teacher" levels, or "Pre + Venus Blessing". Waaaaaaay simpler, and more realistic IMO.
- To clarify: I'm used to having "inferiors" or "equals", and have met only 2 people markedly more intelligent than me. I see myself as having an Int at a little more than +1, maybe +2.
I'm not sure where you get those descriptions for the stats, but given the number of grogs I have seen with 2 stats at 3 I doubt the statistics are anywhere near as rare as you are making them out- Deserving of a country wide contest would be 1 in thousands, which is frankly ludicrous given how often they pop up. I'm willing to entertain a different distribution curve, but if we are going to be basing it on that kind of definition/description I'd like to at least know where it comes from, given that it limits the 'typical' level 11 tractus of the order to something maybe 1 in a million magi can write.
From my perspective grogs are not chosen from the general population because they are good, they are selected based on the fact they are willing to stand working around Gifted people.
Okay, so you saying that made me do some research, because it sounded a bit like hyperbole to me. It turns out, what you say isn’t correct, at least in terms of this saga. I found 41 grogs statted out in the saga, between the Grog Development thread here and the grogs posted on the wiki. Here’s the list:
Adan
Alberto Cortes
Alberto Hernandez
Alejandro
Alexandrus
Allen Girard
Amada
Andre
Andre
Anna Bowyer
Antoni
Armando
Astrid
Bartholomew
Barzin
Carlos Guerro
Carlos Gutierrez
Edward
Elias el Barbero
Epona
Faith Forest
Fausto
Fausto
Gabriel
Gerard
Guilelmuns
Guy et Vidal
Javier
Liberto
Lucia
Ludwig
Moses Mendes
Nicasi the Silent
Oscar Torez
Petrus de Cunfin
Phelippe de Sancerre
Roger, Ghost Corporal of Andorra Guard
Teodor Mata
The Camper
Wen
Yanni the Baker
Of those, 7 are shield grogs from magi no longer at the covenant and need to be removed:
Astrid
Barzin
Edward
Gabriel
Ludwig
Teodor Mata
The Camper
So, that leaves us with 34 named and statted grogs. I think it’s worth pointing out that being a “named” grog definitely makes them “special” in some way, and probably “better” than the average person to start with. Of those 34 named grogs, 9 have a SINGLE characteristic of +3 or higher, 1 has a +4, NONE have a +5 and NONE have more than one characteristic of +3 or higher. Those 9 are:
Anna Bowyer, +4 Com
Carlos Guerro, +3 Qui
Faith Forest, +3 Int
Gerard, +3 Str - Vocis’ shield grog
Moses Mendes, +3 Str - Steward of Andorra, Lieutenant of the Andorra Guard
Oscar Torez, +3 Str
Phelippe de Sancerre, +3 Str - Antoine’s shield grog
Yanni the Baker, +3 Dex
So, out of a group of 34 people, many of whom were already hand-picked by the covenant for one reason or another, only 26% have a characteristic of +3 or higher. It’s also worth noting that these are heavily skewed towards physical characteristics. And that percentage goes down even more if we factor in that the “Typical Almogavar of the Vibria Company”, however many of which we have are not included in these numbers, has NO characteristics of +3 or above.
Unless I’m misunderstanding something, you’re mixing apples and oranges here. Magi are by definition above the average and should be expected to have much higher characteristics. I don’t think comparing a random sampling of grogs to the magi of the Order is in any way helpful or valid.
I can shift it towards 25% at +3 or over between 8 stats, it was the idea of .1% implied by your descriptions of being national level exceptions I objected to.
I took the stats of all grogs off the wikki- past and present, and used this as a distribution pattern to figure out stats, applied over 60 people (available children) for a given stat this produces:
-3: .7 children
-2 2.5 children
-1 7.5 children
0 14.3 children
1 19.2 children
2 12.4 children
3 3.28 children
4 .47 children
which as I see it can give us a few possible actual outcomes
1 com 4, 3 com 3, 12 com 2 14 com 1
or
4 com 3, 12 com 2, 14 com 1
3 com 3, 13 com 2, 14 com 1
then the question becomes frequency of good teacher from within this group (or if we can come up with a way to teach or initiate it. If we are willing to extend the teaching of hermetic virtues to non-hermetic virtues (possibly requiring a flaw the same as initiation does for non gifted) then one on one teaching for a season could effectively bestow the bonus. Otherwise we might consider setting up an academic mystery cult.
I keep telling you Statistical Calculus does not apply. That swings both way. One might say exceptional characters do not exist and/or irrelevant unless created as a Player Character or NPC of importance. One might also say Arans is exceptional. Or it be a matter of a random roll.
Let us go with this. By 1242 we have a class of a dozen exceptional students; intelligent, literate, with positive Com scores. Six have +1, four have +2, one is at +3, and only one has Good Teacher and +2.
Acceptable?
The problem is that I've already written into several existing characters plans the training and teaching of a class of 30 we raised in spring 1236. 1242 would significantly alter the plans.
And statistical calculus simply means calculating the existing distribution, I fail to see how it can truly not apply at all.
Which you already approved, with differing numbers, and I did suggest that we could recruit from Barcelona...
Which would also probably get us access to a better pool of students, having a larger population to select the 'cream' from...
Fundamentally statistical calculus means that if you select the 30 best choices from a pool of 600 they will be better options than the 30 best choices from a pool of 60, all else being equal. Are you saying this concept does not apply in Mythic Europe?
I am saying it neither applies nor fails to apply. Everything in Mythic Europe happens for Mythic reasons, which may or may not synch up with the law of averages.
No, no, you misunderstand. I am thinking (just a thought) about things being in place and ready to go by 1242. In that year, they are all trained and on the payroll at work in our library. So work out the plans for 1236, then 37, and etcetera. Through 1242.
Seems a bit ambitious, but not a big deal. I would think only two school seasons per year, but I do recal we have exceptional teachers. My fault for brevity, but I was imagining something more by 1242. Latin 5, Artes Liberales 1+, Profession Scribe 1+, Magic Theory of a score good enough to write a few tractati and maybe a small summa, Philosophiae, suff like that.
I am likely okay with working with your 1236 numbers and whatever assortment of students I had approved earlier. The one grog you posted works as a player character, I just need to come up with the right story. I propose Cannonball come up with something and have Fredrika recruit the student.
As for a pool of potential students, I might suggest we branch out to territories we control and influence first. There are a few other villages in the Parish of Ordino, and other Parishes in Andorra. We also have the Balearic Islands to consider. A neighboor of Fleur in Ibiza or a rich kid in Palma on Mallorca.
The heart of the issue, the cause of unproductive debates and u-turns, is that we are talking about Method over Results. Perhaps if we were to see the end results of what we have and what they can do (and what they will actually do), then we can go from there. Backstory excuses and causes for whys and wherefores (the benefit if discarding statistical calculus is the power of handwaving). If we have plausible and effective results, the story behind it can be shaped to fit.
So maybe that is what I mean by needing a story. Not one played out, yet a potential hook, and one that has some interesting history.
What I am imagining you are aiming to do is have a handful of young scholars (I imagine they will be old teenagers or young adults when ready), who cal all write a tractatus or two on Magic Theory. They study each other, pass the tracts onto the magi, and write a new set with the knowledge they gained from the last set. Rinse and repeat. Diminishing results, but potential exist to branch out into other skills and to teach directly.
That is the plan, the issue is that what they are capable of accomplishing is heavily dependent on what their com scores are. Com 3 writes a tractus of quality 9, or 12 with good teacher, com 4 writes 10 and 13, com 5 writes 11 and 14. When you start applying these numbers recursively there can be a large difference between one set and another.
by 1242, those who were recruited at age 6 will be 12, and should be being trained still so we can wait until their com scores improve before they start writing tracti, so the real question becomes how many students will be put on a scribe track, how many on a teacher track, and how many on the writer track- and it is this third category which is dependant on their com scores (and good teacher virtue). If the NPCs have a max tractus quality of 9 (com 3 no good teacher) then we will need more writers than if we can get 3 able to write tractus 11 - my preference would be 3 who can write tractus 11 in addition to my written grog who can write quality 13 (when age 14+)
That's why char raising spells are a thing.
Nowhere. Sorry if I was unclear: This is a personnal impression, that's all.
Now, as I said, IMO, grogs are not your average peasants. Most are either seasonned warriors, or promising young ones: I don't see a covenant taking an average guy, with no special talent, and making him a guard, if they can take the best guys from a dozen villages.
So, IMO, a stat that's at +3 in 1 on 100 average guys may very well be at this level in 1/3 of the grogs. Does this look sensible to you?
How to put it?
A stat at 5 is "best in the world" category. You can't go higher (save giant blood). So, IMO, this is the realm of pro athletes, nobel prizes winner...
So the next lower level, country level, must be a stat of 4.
I'd thus put the "best stat" for village level to be at about 3. The village blacksmith and strongest peasants. The farmer's daughters. Top of the world in their 60-people village, one out of 500 when going to a big town.
Of course, there are more variables, such as Good Teacher, or Puissant Athletics... with the "best of the best", the einstein and Hussein bolts, having the full combo (Stat +5, Puissant Athletic, Affinity with Athletics, for exemple).
In the general, not-so-optimised populace, these virtues will be combined with lower characteristics => Instead of having, say, a score gals and guys per country be the best writers with Com +4 or more, there will also be a little more, but with Com 1+ and Good Teacher instead.
This is why I both think high stats are less prevalent that you assume, yet that the number of persons per village with (Com + Good Teacher) is more akin to what you outlined for a given stat.
Am I clearer now? Does this make sense to you?
In a way, I could resume my position like this: The more great stats and optimised combos are common, the less exceptionnal and wonderful the PCs will be. For exemple, if no one has Puissant and Affinity and Great Characteristic, Donna has the potential to be legendary. If every reasonnable-sized town has one similar smith, not so much, and you'll just have little to no way to be "best of the world".
=> I understand that you want the school to be exceptionnal, but, in doing to, you not only break my suspension of disbelief, IMO, you also diminish every PC teacher (By comparison, the great PC authors will just be good, the good average, and the average bad). Thus my reaction. I apologise if it seemed like I was crushing your plans. That wasn't my intention.
Yup!
The thing is there are no average people, and to me while grogs may be better at combat, they will be less qualified at other things, while servants may well have better stats in presence or perception- and when you include all the grogs, not just the fighting ones, I do not see any reason to assume that over all of their characteristics they would be statistically atypical. Nor do I believe that a stat of 5 mean s "THE best in the world", and the remainder of your logic I find even more flawed in terms of assumptions as to the meanings of categories. Essentially your descriptions would put each point of stat at a statistical 30:1 ration, with +1 at 1 in 30, +2 at 1 in 1,000, +3 at 1 in 30,000, +4 at 1 in a million, and +5 at 1 in 30 million- I do not believe those numbers are anywhere near reasonable.
But at the same time Marko has made it very clear that he does not want statistical modeling to dictate the outcome here, so the entire conversation is moot.
the other comment you responded to by Marko is one that... well lets just say reacted very badly to and is not under consideration.
Regarding current needs- would you be okay with 3 children (maybe related to each other) with com:2 and good teacher? (plus of course the other 26 currently vaguely non-descript students)
Also I am basing the idea of the student having 3 commited seasons on the basis of guild apprentices who have 1 season training and two of work (same as the poor flaw) for their apprenticeship.
here are the basic plans for the students until 1242:
1239: students are broken into 3 groups based on competency: writers, teachers, and scribes:
Scribes are put directly to work as apprentices to existing scribes, spending 2 seasons working, one season training, and 1 season free. Advancement depends on the scribe they are assigned to:
Adan: 17xp+ 1 free season
Amada: 12xp+ 1 free season
Nicasi:13xp+1 free season
Continue for 3 years (39,40,41)
2 scribes w/ ability 4
4 scribes with ability:3
Teachers:
Taught 2 seasons by Markus and 1 season by Dragonna in teaching for 2 years-60 pts/yr
2 years training gives 120 pts, Winter w/Marius to 140 at level 7, read lectio& disputio to 154 points in teaching, send to ‘grammer’ schools in area in winter 1242 (best students will be sent to Andorra after a few years preliminary education)
I am wanting to move forward in development, but need to know if anyone is going to ask him for teaching in 1239 as well...
Writers:
Will read copies of Corpus Hermeticum 3 seasons a year for 3 years,
Ability goes from 8 pts to 116 (ability 6) in magic theory, excepting book learner,
Goes from 11 pts to 146 (ability 7)
Age of original class now ranges from 12-19
How many copies of Corpus Hermeticum do we have? I think its just two and there is a good chance magi might want one or two. You might need to have the scribes copy one a few times first.
We do have two - and yes, I think it's one of those super useful texts. Frederika wants to check out a copy for a lot of 1237, for example.
We have 2 copies in winter 1237. I have scribes scheduled to copy it several times, we should have 5-6 copies by 1239.