This is one of the things this saga is built to explore.
Tugurium is in a peculiar situation, something that has never been tried before. It is not registered with any Tribunal, but is rather trying to file its Charter directly with House Guernicus, at least temporarily. For some reason, Augustus Nero suppports that attempt (which is risky for him), but it may very well fail. At a minimum, it will raise a legal s**t storm.
In the letters each of your magi has exchanged with Clusius before joining the covenant, that peculiar situation has been made clear. The covenant has basically 3 options, and the members will need to decide which one to pursue:
- Join one of the three Tribunals (Rhine, Normandy, Greater Alps). Each has its own requirements and constraints on the creation of new covenants. No matter which one you would join, the other two Tribunals will be very unhappy with having you at their border and "poaching" vis source(s) within "their" territory.
- Maintain a neutral status by not joining any Tribunal. That would be a balancing act, hard to defend legally and though to achieve. The benefit is that no Tribunal could impose its rules on you.
- Push for the rebirth of the Lotharingian Tribunal. This would instantly gather you some allies and some enemies, but would put you in a very good position to influence how that reborn Tribunal is structured.