...okay, would anyone else like to run my monkey findin' tale?
One of these days I must run something (simple) myself...
Okay. What sort of plan does he have in mind? Chasing down stories? Heading off randomly into the wilderness hoping to find a familiar? What background work has he done for this?
It has been a busy week and I have some catching up to do. Which I shall soon 
Note that some crackpots theorize that there are any number of factors that could improve these odds. Things like warping, special dates, special regios/realms, special rituals, certain virtues or maybe flaws, and such.
Plus adoption. If you gain your apprentice by adopting them, a child does not have to even be a blood relative.
True. I can see adoption of apprentices - if not common, at least not unheard of.
And I'm sure that at some point Mercere magi (and non-magi) have tried just about every crackpot idea to have a Gifted child.
Lucas has heard of various methods that can double or triple the odds. But this has never been proven and observations are anecdotal (I heard of a guy who said he talked to a guy who said his friend met someone who said he knew of an incident). On the other hand, none of it has been disproven, and every Mercere magus you know of can site one or more of the above listed circumstances being a factor in their own birth. And somehow the Mercere lineage manages to beat the odds. Lucas is a blood descendant of Mercere, as are most of the Gifted magi of his House. As of 1242, I would estimate there are now twenty-two Gifted Mercere, and only a handful are adopted or illegitimate.
Let us look at the cannon start date. There are a dozen in 1220. For simple math say ten were legitimate. If the odds are one-in-ten-thousand, then the previous generation would normally have to have sired a hundred thousand children if they were average. Mercere philosophy encourages swinging and reproducing like rabbits, but that many kids is ridiculous.
Seriously, roll a stress die for each kid. I am curious. 
As for a 1242 population of twenty-two, this is a spike. It includes the twelve accounted for in 1220 and ten that have been gauntleted since then. A few geezers are set to pop off soon. Oh! I forgot Rodrigo. He was one of the old twelve, and he is gone. And maybe another one bit it. So say ten of the current Mercere magi were around in 1220, some were young then and mature now and those who were mature then are old now. So that makes for twelve additional Mercere between 1220 and 1242. Some are mature, some are fresh and young, and Lucas is somewhere in there.
Fleur knows there is a small element of truth to the Mercere methods. But they are minuscule. Consider rolling 80 on a stress die. This or that could possibly add +? here or there, but the best one could reasonably hope to achieve is doubling the odds (one in five-thousand) by stacking many and various things atop one another. And of course it stands to reason that there are many various circumstances that could subtract -?. There are superstitions about this as well, but most of them are used as excuses as to why this or that special trick didn't work.
It could be theorized that those of Mercere blood potentially have a natural bonus. There is also their secret Ritual (CrVi25r Mercury's Blessing, True Lineages p. 103). Which is no guarantee, as it nebulously says "improves the chances", whatever that means.
The thing is, it is almost impossible to prove any of this. And these are just the crazy opinions of one guy that has created a system of checks and balances to keep his crazy opinions subdued 
But tell you what. If Fleur can get a copy of the secret Mercurian ritual, I would grant a few additional insight points if she experiments with it.
Well now, that's an interesting question. Antoine isn't one to hare off without some idea of what he's after, so some planning at least will have happened. He's probably figured that a monkey would suit him well - I assume that Hermetic theory has recognised the general idea of animal type suiting strong arts, and the natural intelligence would be what he's after. Plus fingers, for helping with forge work.
What I don't know is whether magical animals are sufficiently common that it would then make sense to travel to a known large monkey colony and see what happens, or whether he'd need to do a bit more than that; and whether magical methods would help locate a potential animal or if he'd do better listening to rumours.
Keep in mind the animals background as well- the monkey is a sailor, not part of a monkey colony. From that perspective I'm thinking rumors are going to be the best bet- specifically rumors of a talking monkey...
Good point. And probably more likely in the Balearics than in landlocked Andorra. So how about Antoine puts it about the Magi that he's in the market, as it were, and perhaps one of them can hear?
Or perhaps serendipity? Antoine is considering some sort of familiar. Then one day in Ibiza or Mallorca, or even Barcelona; Antoine is visiting market with some grogs. A certain piece of something he is waiting on. He stands off to the side while the grogs do the talking. Then he spots this short hairy guy buying some fruit from a vendor. Normal enough, but then the guy jumps up and grabs a tree branch with his long monkey arm, hauls himself into the tree, and begins eating lunch.
Then get sucked into some story
Sorry, I didn't respond to this earlier. I got hit with the going back to school. Regardless, with the diverging from my "vision", although I use that loosely, I don't think I would be able to run a good one.
Guardians of the Forest actually appears to have two methods of creating Gifted children.
One: Petrus Virilis - apparently all of his children are Gifted. Unfortunately, he may have taken a longevity ritual by this point and he appears to be asexual.
Two: Orphedra and her dark Faerie Charm - With the three generations of Gifts and the conception of children post longevity ritual it seems as if this results in gifted children. The main downside of this is you would need to purchase it from a very evil, very powerful magae. And using the charm is probably evil too.
Final post from the triple post of doom, Church attendance:
Cecilio would go to Church occasionally, but she'd probably be considered a heretic. Holy Hermit grandfather and what not. She will go if someone makes a point of trying to bring her, or her family is visiting.
Vara wouldn't really go. Lisbeth has rubbed off on her and she thinks its rather rude to go bothering the Divine like that.
After she publishes her next tractus in 1242 they might be willing to let her...given that it will be on fertility lore as it applies to the Mercere house "Identifying redcap children".
Hmmm... Intrigue in a Dominion Aura? Sounds like it would be up Rilcheaux's alley...
unfortunately his advancement is awaiting a full conclusion of the Surprise Visitor thread...
True enough. I hadn't thought of that when I set up the scenario. But he'd fit in great.
Frederika's gender aside, she holds a doctorate and her reputation there will probably be useful in Paris' university. Doubly so if she can get a letter of introduction from her old masters at Salerno, but we might not have time for that.
No worries at all, and thank you for your initial monkey ideas. I think we reached a good place with them as jumping off point.
Oh, the church question - I would think Antoine attends, when he remembers. Bernat also, although his faith is... a little less sure than it used to be, given the Bishop's behaviour. Phelippe of course attends, and observes all the sacraments and festivals with great care.
Likewise Bernat, who would also need to be brought up to date.