Spell Design: The Thread Before the Grimoire

I'd say:

  • With a storm cloud above, whether it's already raining or not, +0 magnitudes (it's perfectly normal)

  • From clear blue skies, either +0 or +1 magnitudes. Bolts "out of the blue" or "out of clear sky" are sufficiently "normal" that they have become an idiomatic expression in many languages (modern science knows that they are not really out of the blue, and instead arch down from a storm cloud that can be miles away - but this is a different story)

  • in a cave or building, +1 magnitudes (the guidelines specifically give "indoors" as an example for this magnitude modifier).

  • from your fingertips, +4 magnitudes (again, that's what the guidelines say).